At limit hold'em tables you will frequently hear players tell the dealer, "peel one off," or "let me see one more card." In essence, these players are saying, "I don't have a hand that can win right now, but if I catch a card on the turn, I might win by the river." In online limit play, you may not hear the statement, but you'll witness plenty of strange calls.

We all peel at some time or another. We look at our Ah Kh, see the 10c, 9c, and 5d and say to ourselves, "if I catch an ace or a king on the turn, I'll be back in the game." This might be true. But before you peel, you need to make both mathematical and psychological calculations to ensure that the peel is not costing you money in the long term.

In this article I address the mathematical challenge. In a later article I'll focus on some of the psychological challenges that prevent a player from acting correctly.

Say you're in the big blind with 5-6 off-suit and the flop comes 8-9-A all different suits. You need a 7 to make a straight. So you have 4 outs.

You're in a $3-$6 limit game, and there is $18 in the pot. An early position player bets $3, and everyone folds to you. You have the option of making a $3 call against a $21 pot. You're getting pot odds of exactly 7:1. Being a savvy player, you've memorized the PokerSavvy.com Hold'em Odds Chart. You know that you're a 10.5:1 dog to make the straight. The pot is clearly not laying you enough money to warrant a call that will be profitable. In fact, you'd be losing money each time you make this call.

For this call to be profitable, you'd need to be getting more than 10.5:1 on your call. If there were $42 in the pot and you had a $3 call, you'd be getting 14:1 on your money for a 10.5:1 call. In this case you are "making" money by calling one bet for the turn.

It's vital to remember that in limit hold'em your long-term profit will largely be based on your ability to discern between profitable and unprofitable situations. Yes, you might hit the gutshot when the pot is not laying you proper odds, but making that call repeatedly will cost you money in the long term.

A lot of players will look at the gutshot straight and presume that they have two cards to look at (the turn and the river) thus improving their odds. After all, two chances at making the straight are certainly better than one. Those familiar with the chart may even know that they'd be about a 5:1 underdog to make the gutshot with two cards to come. Looking at an $21 pot, they assume a call is proper, as the pot is giving them exactly 7:1 odds on a $3 call.

But looking at the situation this way is an expensive mistake. When calculating the odds, you must consider that the early position player is likely to bet again on the turn. To get to the river, you will pay $9 ($3 on the flop, and $6 on the turn). The pot will have a total of $27 ($21 after the flop and $6 from the early position bettor on the turn) for your $9 of calls.

In this case, you're getting 3:1 on your money on a 5:1 draw. Clearly, this is an unprofitable move. Put another way, in the long run this play has a negative expectation. Many players will look at similar drawing situations and regularly make negative expectation calls. If you are a serious player working towards profitability in middle-stakes games, you can't afford this kinds of leak.

Study, memorize, and practice. Once you master the odds, you will discover that most of the math involved with hold'em becomes second nature. At that point, you can turn your attention to other areas of your game.

For a more information on hold'em odds, read Mike Petriv's Hold'em Odds Book. This is a wonderful text that explains how to determine odds for any hold'em hand.