Around the World in 150 Days, Day 27, WSOP Predictions
May 2nd, Madison: Today wound up being a very straight forward day, not particularly suitable for blogging. I sat home and grinded online tournaments all afternoon and evening as it is Sunday, and then I went to the gym for about an hour and a half. I cashed some of my tournaments but nothing particularly interesting happened, and my work out was obviously pretty straight forward. As such, I'd like to use this blog entry to make some WSOP predictions. I mentioned this entry to my friend David Huber at pocketfives, and we decided to use it as a front page article there for a day before I put it up here:
It's that time of year again! As the WSOP fast approaches people have many questions and predictions, and after spending some time in Vegas I thought I'd drop in to offer a few of my own.
1. Field sizes will be down, but only very slightly: Many people seem worried this year that with the recession, swine flu, and almost zero preliminary events being filmed this year that the numbers will be down considerably. They point to how other tournaments have done throughout the continental US as their major piece of evidence. They are correct that US fields are down, but it seems globally that the game is doing very well. The EPT was enormous this year, and the LAPT and APPT both had respectable turnouts on top of the random events that weren't associated with a major tour throughout the world. I think the WSOP will take a very small dip, but nothing noticeable or that should really concern anyone.
2. Online players will crush the NLH events, again: If you look back over the last few years NLH events at the WSOP you'll realize that there is a considerable percentage of online kids who are winning them (though obviously not entirely.) I think this year with more small NLH events that plenty of guys can play or bet backed for, plus more and more kids coming of age, means we'll see another year of the kids showing what they can do.
3. Devilfish will make hundreds of young women uncomfortable: But then, how is this different from any other six week period of the year?
4. Durrr will own fools: Oh God, so many fools will be owned by Durrr. He frightens me with his owning abilities. The question about Durrr is whether he'll spend time playing many WSOP events instead of high stakes cash that gets together in Bobby's room or other places, though how much big action gets up in Bobby's is a question in it of itself.
5. As far as a few specific guesses for MTT guys who will crush; Shaundeeb, Zeejustin, Luckychewy: I feel like Shaun has really got his head in the right place to do some crushing this year. I mean obviously there is always a shit ton of variance involved, but in terms of picking a guy who has pretty much blanked out live to do something big I feel like Shaun is the clear choice. He is always sober when playing live these days and he's put up some insane results lately I just wonder what kind of mental plane he's on. While hanging out with him in Vegas I really got the sense that his memory for players and their tendencies and understanding of how to manipulate that history is something special that most guys simply don't have or don't have the focus to bother executing.
Zeejustin seems like a perennial threat to do something big, and he just showed off his skills by winning the Caesar's $5,000 circuit event. Talking to other people about him you get the sense that everyone agrees that he's a very switched on and capable guy with a really excellent game. When I discussed hands with him during my time in Vegas in April I could tell he was thinking over every detail and angle of the hand (particularly against Men the Master) and was essentially very impressed with his analytical skills. He'll also be playing a high number of events including mixed games, which makes it likely we see him at some final tables.
Luckychewy is a guy I've been talking about for years. He's recently had a couple of major results by winning the $2,500 heads up event in the WCOOP as well as a very deep run in the WPT championship. He'll be playing a ton of events and my conversations with him was by far one of the most influential factors in the development of my own game, and there was a hell of a lot more learning from him than he did from me in those talks. Most don't know his real name, but watch for Andrew Lichtenberger deep in WSOP events.
6. Phil Hellmuth will enter the main event with 20 women on each arm: Because entering it with five on each simply isn't enough. Then they will all sit around looking pretty and clapping if he wins a pot and remain quiet when he loses and yells "HUNNY! HUNNY! HE CALLED ME WITH A QUEEN-TEN! GAAAAAAAAAAH!!!" at the crowd. Then when I hit on them they will claim they have no idea who he is.
7. The WSOP ME will get roughly 6,500 players: Following through on my guess about the WSOP being down slightly I think it will carry over to the main event. Last year got 6,844 and I think this year we're looking at roughly 6,500, though for this event particularly an increase actually wouldn't shock me.
8. The WSOP will be run quite smoothly throughout: The improvement in the operations between 2008 and the two years previous to it was enormous. My assumption is that by this year any minor remaining issues that were a problem should be ironed out, as they really seemed to pay attention to detail last year. We saw a considerable reduction in giant lines, no more tent, a separate room for satellites as well as a separate room that often held the day 2 of tournaments, plus an efficient cage room that rarely had a line of more than a few people for it.
9. Men the Master angle shoot over/under: Depends how many events he plays, but I feel like he probably fits in one solid angle per tournament. He plays a ton, so I'll take a shot at about 30 over the course of the summer. That's just on the table mind you.
10. Some truly insane prop bets will go down: As they always do around WSOP time. Ivey will probably make some bet so balla that it makes the cumulative ballaness of every rap artist ever appear meager and inconsequential by comparison, even Biggie. If people have ideas for really nutso ones I'd encourage them to contact me, as I threw away my dignity a long time ago and would be interested in some cool action.