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Defining His Range Into Oblivion

note: cross posted from Andrew's blog at http://www.thinkingpoker.net/Blog/

Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players

Hero (SB): $2,434.50
BB: $3,954.50

Pre-Flop: T K dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $100, Hero raises to $255, BB calls $155

Flop: ($510) 3 A 2 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $199, BB calls $199

Turn: ($908) K (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $480, BB folds

Results: $908 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
Hero mucked T K and WON $907.50 (+$453.50 NET)

If he called the turn, I was shoving the river. Position, deep stacks, and judiciously employed small bets are a lethal combination. It's exceedingly difficult for him to show up with enough big hands to prevent me from exploiting him with river shoves.

If both players employ game theoretically optimal strategy, the advantage will obviously go to the player in position. His EV in the game will be a function of the pot size and the number of betting rounds, meaning that it behooves him to structure the betting so that there is roughly a pot-sized bet remaining on the river. He can then maximize his edge by making better decisions than his opponent about when he wants that last bet to go into the pot.

The player out of position is fighting an uphill battle. To balance his range, he needs to slowplay big hands quite frequently, make some heroic call downs, and float the flop out of position with the intention of check-raising the turn on a bluff. Most players can't do any of those things, let alone all three.

/Bankroll

note: cross posted from Andrew's blog at http://www.thinkingpoker.net/Blog/

I think this has been out for a few days, but I just noticed that Poker Stars has posted a tentative schedule for a yet-to-be-named tournament series in April. I love the format of offering a low-, medium-, and high-stakes option for every tournament and am frankly staggered that they think they will get sufficient interest in some of these events, especially the $2000 Triple Draw.

The 2+2 MTT community is mostly salivating over this, though some are a little concerned that the smaller events will actually discourage people from trying satellite into the bigger events. I don't think they're wrong, but I still expect the big events to be plenty soft thanks to tourney donks playing with relatively deep stacks for fairly big money.

The only issue for me is how to get enough money on Stars by April to enable me to play the ones I want without busting the bankroll. I may suck it up and make a wire transfer, which I've so far refused to do on principle since Stars makes the depositor pay the wire fees. It's really preposterous- I pay enough rake in 10 minutes to cover the fees, and it's clearly in their interest for me to have money on their site.

Anyway, the schedule:

Event 1 - 2 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - NL Hold'em with Rebuys [6-max]

Really looking forward to this one, will probably play the medium and the large.

• 01-L: $5.50 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 01-M: $55 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 01-H: $530 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 2 - 2 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - PL Omaha Hi/Lo

I like PLO8 and will probably play the medium, maybe the large depending on what the field looks like. I'd probably even be willing to play the large if I thought I was slightly -EV.

• 02-L: $11 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 02-M: $109 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 02-H: $1,050 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 3 - 3 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - PL 5-Card Draw

I might play the small or medium for fun, but definitely won't be playing the large.

• 03-L: $11 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 03-M: $109 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 03-H: $1,050 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 4 - 3 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - NL Hold'em [2X Chance, turbo]

It's hard to turn down the great value that all of these NLHE tourneys represent, but I really hate turbos. In these, the tourney donks might actually have the edge on me.

• 04-L: $16.50 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 04-M: $162 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 04-H: $1,575 buy-in, $1,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 5 - 4 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - NL Hold'em Shootout [10-max]

The large will probably be worth playing.

• 05-L: $16.50 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 05-M: $162 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 05-H: $1,575 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 6 - 4 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - PL Omaha [1R1A, 6-max]

I might play the medium, but lately I've no interest in PLO.

• 06-L: $22 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 06-M: $215 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 06-H: $2,100 buy-in, $400,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 7 - 5 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - H.O.R.S.E.

Recently I've concluded that I may not be as good at HORSE as I thought, and/or everyone else is getting better. If I play, it will probably just be the low.

• 07-L: $109 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 07-M: $1,050 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 07-H: $10,300 buy-in, $750,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 8 - 5 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - NL Hold'em [2-day]

Juicy! The medium will be fine, but it's probably not a good idea to burn so much time on a $300 tournament. I really want to play the large though.

• 08-L: $33 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 08-M: $320 buy-in, $1,500,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 08-H: $3,150 buy-in, $3,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 9 - 6 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - FL Triple Draw 2-7

If I play, it would only be the low for fun. Whenever I play this game, I always end up screwing up and getting excited about an Ace or a straight.

• 09-L: $22 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 09-M: $215 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 09-H: $2,100 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 10 - 6 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - NL Hold'em [Heads-Up Match Play]

Nice opportunity for heads up, will probably play medium and large.

• 10-L: $16.50 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 10-M: $162 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 10-H: $1,575 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 11 - 7 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - Mixed Hold'em [6-max]

Meh. I really hate and suck at FLHE. I'll probably sit this one out.

• 11-L: $33 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 11-M: $320 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 11-H: $3,150 buy-in, $800,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 12 - 7 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - 7-Card Stud Hi/Lo

I like this game, but I'm probably not good enough for the large. I'll likely play the medium though.

• 12-L: $22 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 12-M: $215 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 12-H: $2,100 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 13 - 8 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - FL Razz

Same as above, only Razz is more frustrating. Maybe the medium, not the large.

• 13-L: $22 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 13-M: $215 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 13-H: $2,100 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 14 - 8 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - NL Hold'em [6-max]

Tight! Medium and large are both high priorities, and I might even play the low.

• 14-L: $55 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 14-M: $530 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 14-H: $5,200 buy-in, $1,250,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 15 - 9 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - 8-Game

I'm probably too bad at too many of these games to warrant playing even the medium.

• 15-L: $44 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 15-M: $425 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 15-H: $4,175 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 16 - 9 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - 7-Card Stud

I don't really like and suck at 7-stud, so I won't be playing these.

• 16-L: $33 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 16-M: $320 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 16-H: $3,150 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 17 - 10 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - NL Hold'em [1R1A]

I'll play the medium, and I'd like to play the high, but it'll stretch the bankroll. We'll see.

Event 18 - 10 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - PL Omaha

Meh, probably skip all of these.

• 18-L: $55 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 18-M: $530 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 18-H: $5,200 buy-in, $1,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 19 - 11 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - FL Omaha Hi/Lo

I'm not much on this game, will probably skip it.

• 19-L: $55 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 19-M: $530 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 19-H: $5,200 buy-in, $400,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 20 - 11 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - FL Hold'em [6-max]

Definitely not playing these.

• 20-L: $55 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 20-M: $530 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 20-H: $5,200 buy-in, $400,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 21 - 12 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET - NL Hold'em [Heads-Up Match Play]

I'll play the medium and maybe the low but definitely not the high.

• 21-L: $270 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 21-M: $2,600 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 21-H: $25,500 buy-in, $800,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 22 - 12 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET - NL Hold'em Main Event [2-day]

I'll play the medium for sure. I'd really like to play the high, but I don't know if it's going to be practical.

• 22-L: $109 buy-in, $1,000,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 22-M: $1,050 buy-in, $3,000,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 22-H: $10,300 buy-in, $5,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

Good Reads

note: cross posted from Andrew's blog at http://www.thinkingpoker.net/Blog/

It's embarrassing how, after three years of playing poker very seriously, I'm still affected so dramatically by short-term results. For two weeks, I was getting brutalized, doubting my instincts, and not playing my best. Then I have one big day and I'm back to making good reads and following through on them.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($1168.50)
Button ($1144)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 8
Button raises to $30, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($60) 9, J, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $30, Hero raises to $88, Button calls $58

Turn: ($236) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($236) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $175, Hero calls $175

Total pot: $586 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Button had 8, Q (one pair, Jacks).
Hero had A, 8 (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $585.50

This one isn't anything special, but it's a spot where I probably would have folded last week. When you're running bad, you always think they have it. But really, I think his value betting range, at least for a bet of this size, is like K9+. And the best hands in that range probably bet the turn. Throw in the fact that some draws missed and that he's probably floating pretty wide on the flop, and this is practically a standard river call.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($1514)
UTG ($1449)
UTG+1 ($1273)
MP1 ($2032)
Hero (MP2) ($1317)
MP3 ($1000)
Button ($1607.50)
SB ($1092)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, K
3 folds, Hero raises to $35, MP3 raises to $75, 3 folds, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($165) A, Q, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

Turn: ($165) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

River: ($165) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $123, MP3 raises to $377, Hero raises to $1242 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $919 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn't show Q, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $916

This one is tough to explain. Villain is a very unconventionally tricky LAG. The jury's still out on how good he is, but he can definitely do some confusing things.

The river raise is bizarre and feels bluffy, since I doubt he's ever checking a monster on the turn. But I also think he knows how it looks, and I do think he's very capable of raising for value with a bad two pair and maybe even a strangely played AK or something. So while I contemplated calling, I eventually decided that unless he got there on the river with 77 or 65 (and even 65 probably bluffs the flop or turn), he's not calling a shove.