Defining His Range Into Oblivion
note: cross posted from Andrew's blog at http://www.thinkingpoker.net/Blog/
Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
Hero (SB): $2,434.50
BB: $3,954.50
Pre-Flop: T
K dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $100, Hero raises to $255, BB calls $155
Flop: ($510) 3 A
2
(2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $199, BB calls $199
Turn: ($908) K (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $480, BB folds
Results: $908 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
Hero mucked T K and WON $907.50 (+$453.50 NET)
If he called the turn, I was shoving the river. Position, deep stacks, and judiciously employed small bets are a lethal combination. It's exceedingly difficult for him to show up with enough big hands to prevent me from exploiting him with river shoves.
If both players employ game theoretically optimal strategy, the advantage will obviously go to the player in position. His EV in the game will be a function of the pot size and the number of betting rounds, meaning that it behooves him to structure the betting so that there is roughly a pot-sized bet remaining on the river. He can then maximize his edge by making better decisions than his opponent about when he wants that last bet to go into the pot.
The player out of position is fighting an uphill battle. To balance his range, he needs to slowplay big hands quite frequently, make some heroic call downs, and float the flop out of position with the intention of check-raising the turn on a bluff. Most players can't do any of those things, let alone all three.