The Flop Squeeze Play
$5/$10 NLHE 6-handed game. Villains have about $1000 each, I cover. MP opens to $35, BTN calls, I call 9h 7h in the BB.
Flop Ks 6h 2d. I check, MP bets $70 into $105 pot, BTN calls, I raise to $190, both fold. Why?
The logic here is very similar to the pre-flop squeeze play, particularly at the time that Harrington was writing his first book (ie before most people knew what a squeeze play was). The original better has a very wide range, and consequently so does the caller, especially since he didn't 3-bet preflop. My raise into both of them represents strength in a spot where they don't commonly see a bluff, not to
mention that there is extra pressure on the original better since he still has someone left to act behind him.
I expect MP to fold unless he has a pair of K's or better. While all of those hands are in his range, all he's done so far is raise pre-flop (something this particular player did often) and then bet a pretty ideal flop. His range is plenty wide, and he probably folds 80% of the time or more.
The BTN's range is wider but less likely to contain very strong hands. Since he didn't reraise, he will rarely have AK, KK, or AA. Thus, while he can have KQ, 66, or 22, he can also have weaker pocket pairs or even floats like AQ/AJ. My rough guess is that he folds about 60% of the time.
That's enough to make the play immediately profitable, as I'm risking just $190 to win $245. Notice here, though, that I also have several back door draws. If either player calls me, I'm shoving any heart and any 8 on the turn. Since I expect BTN's range to be weaker, I'll also shove 9's, 8's, and 7's against him as a semi-bluff, trying to get him off of stuff like KT or a stubborn TT. Against MP, though, I'd check-fold those same cards, as he needs a stronger hand to call the flop and thus will not fold the turn as often.
February 26th, 2010 - 22:28
Thank you.. Still another exceptional piece of content, this is certainly the reason why My spouse and I come to your web-site usually.
AUDRIE