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If Ever There Was a Spot to Fold Bottom Set for 109 BBs…

No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold’em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($3450)
MP1 ($5000)
MP2 ($5422)
MP3 ($4925)
CO ($3521)
Button ($9048)
SB ($4750)
BB ($8768)
Hero (UTG) ($5763)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8
Hero calls $50, UTG+1 calls $50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $50, 1 fold, CO calls $50, 1 fold, SB calls $25, BB checks

Flop: ($300) A, 8, 4 (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $222, UTG+1 calls $222, MP2 calls $222, CO calls $222, 2 folds

Turn: ($1188) 3 (4 players)
Hero bets $899, UTG+1 calls $899, MP2 raises $5150 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero raises $4592 (All-In), 1 fold

River: ($12387) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $12387

Results:
Hero had 8, 8 (three of a kind, eights).
MP2 had 4, 4 (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero won $12725

This is a pretty unique spot where there’s just no way bottom set is good. I bet into five players on a super-dry Ace-high flop. After getting called in three spots, including by CO, who is a fish who is not going to let go of any Ace without a fight, I bet out again on the turn. Not only that, but UTG+1, who’s a pretty decent player, is showing a ton of strength by calling twice. It’s awfully tough to put all three of us on hands that are losing to 44, and even harder to come up with worse hands that are calling a shove.

There are three Aces, three 8’s, and one 4 unaccounted for (from his perspective). Best case scenario, the fish has a bare Ace, so that leaves two Aces unaccounted for. If neither UTG+1 nor I has a set, then we must both have Aces Up. It’s pretty unlikely for either of us to have A8o or A4o, so there aren’t too many combinations of A8s or A4s for us to have (As4s, Ad8d, As8s). Weigh that against three possible combos of 88 that any of us could have and one combo of AA that I could have (since we’re assuming CO has an Ace in his hand).

On top of that, it would be pretty bad for either of us to call his shove with two pair (except maybe Ad8d, which also a flush draw), and there really aren’t draws to protect against, so while I think he may be able to fold the turn, I definitely think shoving is bad.