Close Call
Villain on my right is kind of a fish, his turn lead is definitely strong. The guy on my left is a pretty decent reg, a bit on the TAGgish side in general but has a propensity to play back at me. I think he dislikes me, I probably said something to him at some point. I don’t expect him to slowplay much preflop or on the flop, but I also didn’t think he would jam too aggressively on the turn since the fish usually has two pair or better.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com
SB ($1005)
BB ($1000)
Hero (UTG) ($1164)
MP ($1499)
CO ($1015)
Button ($1356)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A
, 10
Hero bets $35, MP calls $35, 3 folds, BB calls $25
Flop: ($110) 8, Q, K
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $77, MP calls $77, BB calls $77
Turn: ($341) 10
(3 players)
BB bets $225, Hero calls $225, MP raises to $1387 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls $827 (All-In)
River: ($2670) J (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $2670 | Rake: $3
Results:
Hero had A, 10 (straight, Ace high).
MP had Q, K (two pair, Kings and Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $2667
I need 31% equity to make the call. I think the straights are pretty unlikely except maybe Js9s. I’m almost exactly breaking even against a strong range without straights:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.682% 30.68% 00.00% 243 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 69.318% 69.32% 00.00% 549 0.00 { KK-QQ, 88, KQs, KQo }
Against a much wider range that includes straights but also pair + draw:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.285% 32.93% 00.36% 1246 13.50 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 66.715% 66.36% 00.36% 2511 13.50 { KK-QQ, 88, AJs, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, AJo, KTo+, QJo, J9o+ }
The absolute worst case scenarios for me are Js9s or AxJs, against which I’m only 22%. I’m not sure he’s calling Js9s pre-flop or AJo on the flop, though. Of course, any chance of him being on a pure draw improves my equity a lot, though I also think that’s unlikely. All in all, it’s very close, and I’m glad I spite called.