Foucault Just another PokerSavvy weblog

My latest poker strategy article, How to Spot a Level 3 Thinker, has just been published in the April issue of 2+2 Magazine. The introduction describes the genesis of the article:

One of my first articles for Two Plus Two Magazine, Level-Headed Thinking, was a brief introduction to the various “levels” of thinking about poker and how they should affect your decision-making at the table. When teaching and coaching, I regularly talk through a hand by explaining that against a Level 1 thinker I would do one thing, but that if I thought my opponent were on Level 2, then I would do something else instead.

In other words, when giving advice about a hand that someone else played, I feel like I can explain what factors to consider and how to respond given a certain read or set of assumptions, but only the player at the table can supply the read itself. One of my students recently asked me a question that gave me pause: “How am I supposed to know which level my opponent is thinking on?”

I hemmed and hawed a bit and told him that you just sort of get a feel for these things, but I knew this was an inadequate answer, and I resolved to think through some of the concrete evidence that I use to form such reads. What you’ll find here is the result of that exercise, an attempt to organize some of the most common behaviors that you can observe in your opponents that will give you clues as to how they think and play.

One of the “tells” that I point to for a Level 3 thinker is what might look like a surprisingly tight check behind on the river. This could simply indicate weak-tight play, but it may also reveal that the player is aware of how strong his hand looks and correctly decides not to value bet the bottom of his range, even when the absolute strength of the hand is quite high. Here’s an example of such a check that I made tonight:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Hand Converter from PokerSavvyPlus.com

Button ($1625.25)
SB ($4574.35)
Hero (BB) ($1092)
UTG ($1020.35)
MP ($2066)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 2
3 folds, SB bets $35, Hero calls $25

Flop: ($70) 6, A, A (2 players)
SB bets $50, Hero calls $50

Turn: ($170) J (2 players)
SB bets $140, Hero calls $140

River: ($450) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $450 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had K, Q (one pair, Aces).
Hero had A, 2 (three of a kind, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $447

When I call Villain’s big turn bet, I have either a bluff-catcher or a monster but pretty much never air or a draw. This is a spot where Villain will probably never check and call, because that would only be a good line for bluff-catching, and I don’t really have hands in my range that will need to bluff. I can call the river if he bets, since he could be bluffing, but I can’t bet when he checks. He is either giving up or check-raising, but unless I expect him to check-raise bluff often, which I don’t, then I can’t bet (if he is going to check-raise bluff, then I can bet-call.)

Another month, another monthly review of progress towards my Yearly Resolutions.

Goal 1: Average 15 Hours/Week Playing My “Regular” Games

I’ve found that 15 hours/week enables me to earn a pretty healthy income, far more than I could make at any real job I could get, without impeding too much on my lifestyle.

I consider my regular games to be anywhere from 2/4 NL to 50/100 NL as well as big tournaments like the Sunday Majors, the FTOPS, and the WCOOP; time spent playing any of these will count towards my goal.

About 7 hours ahead of pace. I actually lost ground on this in March, which surprised me, because I really felt like I was packing the hours in. I’m still hopeful that April will be a big month, though.

Goal 2: Earn $X in NLHE Cash Games

It’s very tough to predict or control what I will earn playing tournaments. With cash games, though, it’s mostly a question of game selection and putting in hours. It’s not something I’m going to announce publicly, but I am going to set a target, and I am going to put in extra hours towards the end of year if I’m on pace to come up short.

Pretty much exactly on pace, given the number of days that have passed. Considering how many hours I’ve played relative to that yearly goal, I’m actually slightly behind pace.

Goal 3: Earn Supernova status on PokerStars

My plan for this is to table select as usual in the beginning of each month, and then assess my progress towards the end of each month. If I’m on pace to come up short, I’m going to put in extra hours above and beyond my weekly goal just grinding 9 tables of $1/2 NLHE (or smaller) until I hit my VPP target for the month. Hopefully this is something I can do relatively stress-free, just an hour or two at a time, when I’m not in the mood to put in a proper session in higher stakes games. To be honest, my hourly rate should still be quite good multi-tabling SSNL, so hopefully this will incentivize me to make a little money in what would otherwise be downtime.

As of today, pace for Supernova would be 25,479. I’m sitting on 28,780. I think this might really happen this year!

Goal 4: Monetize This Blog

I know I keep saying it, but sooner or later I really am going to look into making money a little more directly from this blog. I feel like it’s right on the cusp of being pretty profitable. That doesn’t have to mean ads, though it might. Maybe I’ll…

Snail’s pace.

Goal 5: Write a Book

I’ve talked about this before, but this is the first time it’s ever been an explicit goal. I’ve already got some downtime sketched out in the next few months to work on this and have been kicking around some ideas in my head. Rather than trying to write one big, expensive e-book as a lot of people have done, I’m thinking of doing a series of smaller, modular works that could be purchased separately or as a set. Those of you who read this blog regularly are going to be a big chunk of the target audience, so keep an eye out for posts in the next few weeks soliciting your input about what you’d like to see in a poker book authored by yours truly.

No progress, but I’m expecting to have some time to get this straightened out this month.

Goal 6: Average One Blog Post Per Day

I know it’s been a little quiet on here of late. Part of that is the holidays, and part of it is just laziness. I want to get back to posting once a day. There will probably be more non-poker content, and not all of the poker stuff will be equally in-depth, but overall you can expect to see more and better content here.

Only 29 posts in March, falling slightly further behind….

Goal 7: Average Five Hours of Coaching Per Week

Coaching was extremely fun and rewarding for me last year. So far, except for my group seminars, I haven’t done much to market myself as a coach or actively solicit students. I’ve mostly just worked with students as they’ve come to me, and so so far that’s kept me just about as busy as I’d like to be with coaching. I want to ramp it up a bit this year by setting a monthly goal and actively soliciting students if necessary to ensure that I’ve got a regular stream of students.

Very little this month, which was unexpected. Two of my students had personal issues some up and needed to go on hiatus, and I haven’t had time to fill those spots yet. I’m in the process of lining up new students, so if you’re interested, check out my poker coaching information.

Goal 7: Average an Hour a Day of Dedicated Studying and Improvement

I’m going to be very broad about what this can include: reading books, watching videos, reviewing hands in Hold ‘Em Manager, talking poker with a friend, and even blogging (when it’s related to reviewing my play).

Way behind. I haven’t done as much with Leakbuster as I thought I would, so that review is still in the works. Maybe this month?

Goal 8: Use Hold ‘Em Manager

I switched from Poker Tracker to Hold ‘Em Manager last year. PT2 is great, but HEM is just better. For the last part of the year, I was playing without it on my laptop. It does get in my way sometimes, but I’d rather learn how to work with it than insist on playing without it.

Still getting better, slowly but surely.

Goal 9: Finish the Year with a 4BB/100 Win-Rate at 5/10 NL and/or Higher

Same goal as last year, since I didn’t achieve it but still think it’s very viable. It might be cheating a little, but I’m going to allow myself to count my results from bigger games towards this goal or not depending on whether I do better in them than I do in 5/10 (this was the cast last year). Basically, if I am at 4 BB/100 over a big sample at 5/10, then I don’t care how I’m doing in bigger games. If I’m not doing quite that well at 5/10 but am at 4 BB/100 if I also count bigger games, then that’s certainly a fine result as well.

3.88 BB/100 at 5/10, 3.06 if you add in bigger games. This still looks doable, but these games can be tough!

Goal 10: Play 50,000 Hands of Heads Up NLHE at 5/10 and Higher

Last year, my win rate at heads up was twice what it was at ring games. Plus, it’s a great way to improve poker skills in general, and at stakes above 10/20, it’s often the only way to get action.

Didn’t play as much this month. I’m at 12K hands now, with -5 BB/100. Got to put some more hours in and hopefully start winning!

How did March treat you?