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The Trouble with TAGfish

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

MP ($2234.75)
CO ($350)
Button ($1000)
SB ($2029)
BB ($3622.05)
Hero (UTG) ($1183)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, J
Hero bets $40, 2 folds, Button calls $40, 2 folds

Flop: ($95) Q, 2, J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $60, Hero calls $60

Turn: ($215) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($215) 2 (2 players)

Hero checks, Button bets $155, Hero raises to $680, 1 fold

Total pot: $525 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show A, J (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $522

Granted I don’t rep much, but it’s also very hard to put me on a hand that needs to bluff, and TAGfish don’t like to hero call. FWIW my Jack is good on the river about 10% of the time when he bets- calling is not an option.

One of My Thinner Value Bets

…and not necessarily a good one.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

Hero (BB) ($5664)
SB ($8603)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, K
SB calls $25, Hero checks

Flop: ($100) K, 2, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $66, SB calls $66

Turn: ($232) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $187, SB calls $187

River: ($606) J (2 players)
Hero bets $411, SB calls $411

Total pot: $1428 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had 10, 2 (two pair, tens and twos).
Hero had 8, K (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: SB won $1427.50

Then again, he did call me with a relatively weak hand, so I guess I sort of had the right read. Then again again, he’s a lot more likely to get to the river with a weak two pair than with a weak one pair.

Deep Bluff

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

BB ($1000)
Hero (SB) ($1807.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, 6
Hero bets $12, BB calls $8

Flop: ($25.60) 3, 5, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $19, BB raises to $64, Hero calls $45

Turn: ($153.60) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $72, Hero raises to $211, BB calls $139

River: ($575.60) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1520 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $575.60 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn’t show 10, 6 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $575.10

I don’t think there are many 7’s in his flop check-raising range. I could see him having 74s if he calls that pre-flop or 87 but probably not a hand like K7 or 75. I expected that he would shove 87 over a turn raise, but that if he just called the turn raise, I could shove unpaired rivers and win a large percentage of the time. Granted I sometimes have the best hand anyway on the turn, but that’s kind of irrelevant since it’s vulnerable and I don’t think I can call a river bet. So I turn it into a bluff on the turn, and once he calls, I expect him to have two pair or a set. The turn bet sizing is pretty consistent with that as well.

The overbet on the river (it’s about $750 into $500) is some extra encouragement for him to fold. Honestly I don’t think I’m playing a bare 7 like this. If I raise the turn for value, I have either 87 or a 7 with a heart draw. I felt shoving the river was more consistent with the 87 and also would get disproportionate folds even if he did manage some good handreading and put me on a narrow range.

87th

This year’s WSOP journey ended for me about an hour ago. Out of more than 7000 players, I finished 87th and won just shy of $80,000. There was nothing dramatic about it. I lost two very standard pre-flop hands to Eric Baldwin, once with A4s < KJs for a 700K pot and once with A8s < JTs for a 1.6M chip pot. Then I made a standard preflop shove with A7, got called by QQ, and lost.

There is always a modest amount of disappointment when it's all over, but of course all in all I'm quite pleased with the result. I'm also very happy that for the first time ever I feel like I played through this whole tournament without making any big mistakes and with only a few small ones. That doesn't mean that everything always went my way, but as they say you play the cards you're dealt, and I believe that I would play most of them the same way if I had it to do all over again.

I was on the secondary feature table for the first few hours today, meaning both that I managed to secure an endorsement deal that brought me a little extra money and also that I'll likely make an appearance on the ESPN broadcast of this tournament. One hand in particular is quite likely to be on there:

Gualtar Sallas raised in early position, David Baker called, I called with Ac Jc on the button, and the BB called. The flop brought Js 8c 6c, giving me top pair and the nut flush draw. The pre-flop raiser bet, Baker raised, and I moved all-in. Sallas folded after some thought, and it was about 600K more to Baker. It was also a very large pot, and he made a tough but probably correct call with QQ.

As the cameras swarmed, Sallas announced that he'd folded Kc Qc. Awesome. The turn was no help, but I binked the 5c on the river to win a 2.7 million chip pot.

This hand was actually misreported on the ESPN blog, where they write that, “Baker was able to get his opponent’s chips in the middle holding Q-Q to his opponent’s A-J on a jack-high board” but that “the turn and river would give Andrew Brokos the lucky runner-runner flush”. As I said, I actually had top pair and the nut flush draw on the flop, and absent the information that Sallas had folded the Kc Qc, I was in fact the (very slight) favorite.

I understand that there are a lot of hands to report and that mistakes will be made, but there have been complaints before that such mistakes are almost always made in favor of the more well-known player. In this example, the hand is reported in a way that makes it seem as though David Baker had somehow outplayed me (he “managed” to get my chips in) and that I got much luckier than I did to win the pot. This is a hand that was played at an ESPN feature table, was recorded by their cameras, and was witnessed by 9 players, several floorpeople, and multiple ESPN employees. It was a huge pot that took several minutes to play out on camera, and I have difficulty believing that any of them, if asked, would have misremembered such an important detail as whether I had a flush draw on the flop.

To be clear, I am not suggesting a deliberate misrepresentation of facts. I am suggesting sloppy reporting and an unconscious bias towards reconstructing details in favor of a more well-known player.

But never mind all that; I don’t want to end on a sour note. Today was an extremely difficult day at a table absolutely packed with very very strong players: Adam Levy, Eric Baldwin, David Baker, Peter Jensen, Scott Clements, and a few others who I didn’t know by name but who weren’t making a lot of mistakes. To a man they were all consummate professionals, and no matter which way the pots went there was never any belly-aching, berating, cheering, or jeering. We all recognized how tough the table was, but we were always polite and friendly. I did have the good fortune to get moved away from that table eventually (leaving behind 2 million chips that had once been mine), and I meant what I said as I departed: “I am very glad not to be playing with any of you any more, and I wish you all the best.” I am certain that at least one if not more of the gentlemen I played with today will be among the November 9.

I know I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating: I’m both very flattered and very grateful for the number of people, some of whom have no idea who I am, who have followed along and offered encouragement. Even when the other players at the table are friendly, it’s ultimately very lonely out there on the felt, and it’s great getting e-mails, comments, and text messages and just knowing that so many people are thinking of me. So thanks to all of you, and here’s to more stories to tell next year!

Sincerely,
Andrew

PS Also, here’s to Tony Dunst, who started the day with less than 400K and just finished with roughly 1.6 million. He actually inherited my seat at the Table of Death, and I’m glad to see that he survived it. Best of luck tomorrow, buddy!

1.2 Million Going Into Day 6

Day 3 Recap

What a run. In the last two days I’ve 20x’ed my chips without ever seeing TT, QQ, KK, or AA. I did have AK quite a few times today, though, and I connected with a few flops when it counted.

I stole more than my share of pots for a few hands, then made a questionable 4-bet shove with AKo. UTG+1 had raised to 2500, and I called with AKo next to his act. Then Brian Jensen re-raised to 8500, the raiser folded, and I shoved like 55K. He snap-called with KK, and then though I turned a flush draw, I couldn’t get there on the river. I probably should have just 3-bet the original raiser, and that would have had the added advantage of being able to get away if Brian cold 4-bet. Anyway, that didn’t help.

Not long after, I flatted a raise from a kind of active older Japanese guy with 99 on my BB. Flop was perfect: A92 with a flush draw. I check, he bets 4000, I raise to 14000, he calls. Turn A. I bet 30K, he puts me all in for like 75K total, I call and hold vs. his AQ.

I opened Qc8c UTG+1, and same guy called on his button. Flop Js9d4c. I bet 7K, he calls. Turn As, I bet 21K, he quickly calls. River 4s. He checked out of turn, and I was really tempted to fire at it, but this guy seemed loose and his quick turn call worried me. I checked and told him he was good. He indicated for me to show, so I did. He showed QT, and we chopped the pot. Guess I should have bluffed river, but what an awful turn call, especially since he wasn’t even going to represent the flush. Whatever, I was thrilled to get half back.

It was a while before I played another interesting hand. I pretty much ran my image into the ground. Vince Van Patten in particular was complaining about how I was fighting him for every pot. So I raised his BB with 75s, and he called. Flop came A52 with a flush draw. He checked, I bet 4400, he quickly raised to 20K, and I called. Turn 5, he checked, I bet 28K, he hemmed and hawed for a long time before folding. I showed him the 7c.

Image was still terrible a while later when I opened ATo UTG+1 to 5700 at 1000/2000/300. Kid who was kinda new to table and hadn’t done much (but had observed me being aggro) called. Flop AA9 with a flush draw. I bet 11K, he calls. Turn 4 makes a second flush draw possible. I check, he checks. River 9. I check again, expecting him to bluff counterfeited pairs and to value bet anything good enough to call a bet. He bets 15K, I raised to 60K, he tanks for a long time, calls, and mucks. I go to dinner with 300K.

After dinner, old Japanese guy had just gotten rivered and seemed tilted. Active guy raises to 3500 from early position, Asian guy shoves 35K, I call with AKo in my SB, first guy folds, I hold vs. A8.

Same active guy opens early position again, VVP calls, and I call 88 in SB. Flop T97 with a flush draw checks around. Turn offsuit 2, checks to VVP, he bets 20K, which is nearly pot. I call, other guy folds. River offsuit 9, I check, VVP quickly bets 35K. I think it’s very unlikely he slowplayed two pair or better on this flop and I can’t see him value betting a T here, so I called and won.

My next button I open to 4500 with K3o, Jensen calls in BB. Flop A42, we both check. Turn T, he bets 6000, I call. River blank, we both check, he announces J-high, I show and win.

Jensen raises early position, I flat AKo on my BB. Flop K62r, we check it through. Turn A, I’m thinking maybe I should have bet this but we checked it through again. River blank, I think about overbetting but settle on 15K, which is practically pot. He snaps and nods knowingly when I show the winner.

My next button I raise to 4500 with AKo on my button and Jensen calls. Flop AhTh5s. He checks and calls 7K. Turn Jh, he checks and calls 17K. River blank, we both check and again I show the winner.

Going into tomorrow with 503,300. Average is like 180K. Feeling good.

Day 3 is Here!

For those that didn’t see PieFarmer’s comment, here’s his summary of my Day 3 table draw with my parenthetical additions:

• Danny Dam 198,000 AMAZON / 264 / 1 No info
• Vincent Van Patten 174,200 AMAZON / 264 / 2 Celeb/Pro [WPT Color Commentator]
• Thong Tran 57,100 AMAZON / 264 / 3 Vegas Pro w/ 3 cashes this WSOP
• Cristian Busi 151,400 AMAZON / 264 / 4 No Info
• Andrew Brokos 110,400 AMAZON / 264 / 5 philosopher
• Michael Bunin 26,200 AMAZON / 264 / 6 no info [actor on TBS sitcom "My Boys"]
• Brian Jensen 55,000 AMAZON / 264 / 7 pro from Denmark [won 07 PCA]
• Vincent Elkael 25,000 AMAZON / 264 / 8 cashed Venetian deep stack 09 and 10
• Dan White 56,900 AMAZON / 264 / 9 few small cashes 2009, non WSOP [active online player]

Play starts at noon PST with occasional updates on twitter.com/thinkingpoker

Survived Day 1

Gross table, gross day. Can’t recall the last time I was so miserable playing poker. Pretty much never got above my starting 30K all day. Had some crap luck especially last hour and was down around 12K. Table was crazy aggro, maybe one or two pots all day went unopened and probably 30% or more were 3-bet. So I ended up 4-betting all in with JJ, ran into AA, but sucked out. Finished day with 26,500. Don’t think I could possibly get a tougher table for Day 2, so hopefully nowhere to go but up. I play again on Friday, thanks for all your support!

Strategy Article: Improving your MTT Skills

My latest poker strategy article, Improving Your MTT Skills, is now appearing in the July edition of the 2+2 Magazine. It’s a little different in that it doesn’t discuss particular hands or strategy concepts. Rather, it recommends some non-traditional ways to hone MTT skills that MTT specialists rarely get to practice but that are critically important:

I believe it is possible to improve your expected value and your theoretical Return on Investment (ROI) far more quickly by identifying the most important/expensive mistakes you are likely to make and focusing on improving your decision-making ability in these situations first. That means you ought to be far more concerned about playing better in the late stages of a tournament, especially the final table, than you are about the early stages.

The article is full of specific suggestions, so be sure to check it out and let me know what you think!