Deep Bluff
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com
BB ($1000)
Hero (SB) ($1807.80)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 10
, 6
Hero bets $12, BB calls $8
Flop: ($25.60) 3, 5
, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $19, BB raises to $64, Hero calls $45
Turn: ($153.60) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $72, Hero raises to $211, BB calls $139
River: ($575.60) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1520 (All-In), 1 fold
Total pot: $575.60 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
Hero didn’t show 10, 6 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $575.10
I don’t think there are many 7’s in his flop check-raising range. I could see him having 74s if he calls that pre-flop or 87 but probably not a hand like K7 or 75. I expected that he would shove 87 over a turn raise, but that if he just called the turn raise, I could shove unpaired rivers and win a large percentage of the time. Granted I sometimes have the best hand anyway on the turn, but that’s kind of irrelevant since it’s vulnerable and I don’t think I can call a river bet. So I turn it into a bluff on the turn, and once he calls, I expect him to have two pair or a set. The turn bet sizing is pretty consistent with that as well.
The overbet on the river (it’s about $750 into $500) is some extra encouragement for him to fold. Honestly I don’t think I’m playing a bare 7 like this. If I raise the turn for value, I have either 87 or a 7 with a heart draw. I felt shoving the river was more consistent with the 87 and also would get disproportionate folds even if he did manage some good handreading and put me on a narrow range.