Foucault Just another PokerSavvy weblog

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One Mistake

I’ve been taking a beating in heads up games recently. There were one or two cases of bad game selection, but for the most part I don’t think I’ve playing or running all that badly. I’m losing to people against whom I’m pretty confident I have an edge, not because of bad luck or consistently bad play, but because I keep making like one big mistake per match. And the thing is, no matter how well you play 99% of your hands, you can’t afford to make a 100BB+ mistake, not even once. That just isn’t a handicap you can overcome.

Here was tonight’s. I was up about four buy-ins across on this guy across all the tables we were playing when this happened:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

Hero (SB) ($8949.50)
BB ($28887)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 10
Hero bets $100, BB raises to $375, Hero raises to $950, BB calls $575

Flop: ($1900) 9, 6, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $699, BB raises to $2750, Hero raises to $7999.50 (All-In), BB calls $5249.50

Turn: ($17899) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($17899) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $17899 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 7, 10 (one pair, sixes).
BB had Q, 8 (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: BB won $17898.50

I underbet the flop with the intention of shoving over a check-raise, and I don’t think that was a bad plan. What should have given me pause (what did, to be honest, give me pause, though I ignored it and shoved anyway) was the size of his check-raise. I was expecting a check-raise to about 2K with some mix of bluffs and value hand against which I have a boatload of outs. This larger check-raise, I think, is almost always a flush draw. And a flush draw is the only hand against which I don’t have good equity.

I went on to finish slightly down to this guy after losing a few more big pots that I think I played fine but that just didn’t go my way. Erase this hand and I’m up. Unfortunately it doesn’t work like that. The only way to erase mistakes like these is to stop making them.

For the sake of my ego, here’s one of my better played hands against the same guy:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

Hero (SB) ($7513.50)
BB ($10000)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, 5
Hero bets $100, BB raises to $350, Hero calls $250

Flop: ($700) 9, 7, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $375, Hero calls $375

Turn: ($1450) Q (2 players)
BB bets $900, Hero calls $900

River: ($3250) A (2 players)
BB bets $2900, Hero calls $2900

Total pot: $9050 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 5, 5 (two pair, nines and fives).
BB had 10, 8 (one pair, nines).
Outcome: Hero won $9049.50