PokerStars Super Tuesday
I had a deep run but ultimately a disappointing 15th place finish in last night’s $1000 Super Tuesday tournament on PokerStars, which performance they chronicled on their blog. I say “disappointing” not only because I went from 2/18 to out in 15th but also because I felt like I wasn’t playing all that well in the late game and mostly just accumulated chips through running good on pre-flop all-ins.
The tournament got off to a good start, with me picking up big pots from two different players who frankly played their hands pretty badly:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t40 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerSavvyPlus.com
SB (t4191)
BB (t1466)
UTG (t3066)
UTG+1 (t5619)
MP1 (t4260)
MP2 (t6164)
MP3 (t5035)
CO (t4405)
Hero (t6269)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 9h, 7h.
6 folds, Hero raises to t80, SB raises to t200, 1 fold, Hero calls t120.
Flop: (t440) 7c, 9c, 9d (2 players)
SB bets t320, Hero calls t320.
Turn: (t1080) 3d (2 players)
SB bets t600, Hero calls t600.
River: (t2280) 2s (2 players)
SB bets t960, Hero raises to t5149, SB calls t2111 (All-In).
Final Pot: t10500
Results in white below:
SB has 7s Qs (two pair, nines and sevens).
Hero has 9h 7h (full house, nines full of sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins t10500.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t60 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerSavvyPlus.com
Button (t5650)
SB (t2477)
BB (t2801)
UTG (t5406)
UTG+1 (t4095)
MP1 (t4264)
MP2 (t4870)
MP3 (t3330)
Hero (t10520)
Preflop: Hero is CO with As, Jh.
5 folds, Hero raises to t120, Button calls t120, 1 fold, BB calls t60.
Flop: (t340) Ac, Tc, 3c (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t326, Button calls t326, BB folds.
Turn: (t992) Js (2 players)
Hero bets t669, Button calls t669.
River: (t2330) 7s (2 players)
Hero bets t1444, Button calls t1444.
Final Pot: t5218
Results in white below:
Hero has As Jh (two pair, aces and jacks).
Button has Qh Ah (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins t5218.
After that things were quiet for a while and I just sort of rode my stack without doing too much. Eventually I got into two questionable spots, both with TT and within 10 minutes of each other. I made a post about these on 2+2, so I don’t want to reveal too much about them here, but by all means please let me know what you think in that thread.
My next big pot, where I suppose there was some skill involved, came here:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (9 handed) Hand History converter
MP1 (t111393)
MP2 (t147439)
MP3 (t25260)
CO (t81660)
Hero (t54309)
SB (t38012)
BB (t15045)
UTG (t16782)
UTG+1 (t21806)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Kd, Td.
3 folds, MP2 raises to t2000, MP3 calls t2000, 1 fold, Hero calls t2000, 2 folds.
Flop: (t7000) 5d, Tc, 9h (3 players)
MP2 bets t3100, MP3 calls t3100, Hero calls t3100.
Turn: (t16300) Ks (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 bets t20035 (All-In), Hero calls t20035, MP2 folds.
River: (t56370) 2c (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t56370
Results in white below:
MP3 has Jc Kc (one pair, kings).
Hero has Kd Td (two pair, kings and tens).
Outcome: Hero wins t56370.
My stack just sort of fell off after this, I think I just didn’t find any good spots for a while and so my stack went down while the blinds went up. A three-way all-in with AA > QQ> JJ catapaulted me back into 2nd place with 18 remaining, but even from there I couldn’t make anything happen. The hand where I lost my stack is probably pretty standard but honestly when he 4-bet me I didn’t feel good about sticking it in and I half wish I hadn’t:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t2800 (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerSavvyPlus.com
MP1 (t146880)
MP2 (t82793)
CO (t92672)
Button (t194184)
Hero (t132475)
BB (t54039)
UTG (t180453)
UTG+1 (t115150)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Qh, Qd.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t5750, 4 folds, Hero raises to t15000, 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t31885, Hero raises to t132125, UTG+1 calls t82915 (All-In).
Flop: (t249025) 6d, Td, 5d (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t249025) 2h (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t249025) Jc (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t249025
Results in white below:
Hero has Qh Qd (one pair, queens).
UTG+1 has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins t231700. Hero wins t17325.
What’s Your Range: Results
Sorry that I was slow in posting results and lax about responding to comments. Not only was I moving over the weekend (got a place in Boston for a few months- more on this soon), but I also took ill. In retrospect eating a pre-made tuna sandwich from a rest stop Starbucks may not have been a great idea.
Anyway, I’ll go ahead and reveal my cards and the results, then I’ll get into my thoughts on what my range ought to be here:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter
Button ($605.25)
Hero ($1134.25)
BB ($609)
UTG ($1229)
UTG+1 ($668.20)
MP1 ($591)
MP2 ($702.15)
MP3 ($216.50)
CO ($726)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 8h, 8s.
3 folds, MP2 raises to $12, 2 folds, Button calls $12, Hero calls $9, BB calls $6.
Flop: ($48) Jc, 8c, Jd (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 bets $42, Button raises to $131, Hero raises to $1122.25, BB folds, MP2 folds, Button folds.
Final Pot: $1343.25
Results in white below:
No showdown. Hero wins $1343.25.
Villain begged me to tell him what I had, and I told him that I would if he would tell me what’s the worst hand he calls with. He agreed, I answered him truthfully, and he fold me AJ is the worst hand he’d call with. He also told me that he folded KJ.
He spent a lot of time in the tank before folding, and I do believe that he folded a J. I’d say it’s more likely than not that he’s telling the truth about his actual hand, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he were lying about the strength of his kicker.
What’s My Range?
If Villain is really folding KJ here, my answer would change, and we’ll come back to that in a moment. I do think BTN has a J just about always when he makes this raise. MP2 has made a very large continuation bet into three players, and BTN’s raise is also quite large. If he wanted to raise as a bluff, I believe he would have chosen a smaller amount. I doubt this is a play he would make against someone he considered very good. In this case, he probably just assumed that MP2 had hand he liked and would have difficult letting it go, and consequently made an exploitable raise that he would only make with a hand with which he’s willing to stack off to MP2.
With 88, there was no question that I wanted to shove. I don’t think there is any hand that I would cold-call here except maybe JJ just because even though it would look suspicious as hell the only hand that could call a shove (88) probably wouldn’t get away anyway. I’d never cold-call a draw here, and consequently cold calling is going to look even stronger than shoving, which is something I could conceivably do with good draws.
There are a few really key points to recognize about my shoving range: (1) When I have trips, my kicker matters; and (2) It should be unbalanced and should not contain any draws. Because of the size of the pot and the number of players involved, everyone’s ranges must be very strong. Consequently, balance is not really a consideration. Given how much we are risking relative to the pot and how many players are left to act behind us, anything resembling a bluff is out of the question. It’s just a question of which hands are strong enough to stack off with here, and that boils down to equity vs. Villain’s calling range.
Kickers Matter
Let’s assume that Villains raising range consists of JTs, QJs, KJs, AJs, KJo, AJo, and 88. This assumes that he folds JTo and QJ pre-flop and that he slowplays quads and J8 (if he has this in his range). Likewise if he happens to have something like J9 where his kicker is very weak, we’ll assume that he doesn’t raise that either. Combinatorically, he has
(2) JTs
(2) QJs
(2) KJs
(2) AJs
(8) KJo
(8) AJo
(3) 88
If he calls only with AJ and 88, then he folds 14 combos and calls with 11 combos. This means that we win a $221 pot slightly over half the time when we shove. We are risking $600 to make this play, though, so our equity when called is going to matter a great deal.
Against a calling range of {AJo,AJs,88}, JTs has 23% equity, and QJs and KJs have slightly less than that (because they will make fewer running straights). Ordinarily, the card removal effect of our holding trips would be quite significant, but in this case his calling range includes 88 but his folding range consists entirely of J’s, so holding a J actually increases the likelihood that we’ll be called.
When we hold AJs, his combos change to
(1) JTs
(1) QJs
(1) KJs
(1) AJs
(4) KJo
(2) AJo
(3) 88
Assuming a calling range of {AJo,AJs,88}, he folds 7/13. Given that the pot is $221 when he folds, we have $119 in fold equity.
AJs has 36.086% equity against that calling range. If only BTN calls our shove, the pot is $1343.25, giving us $484.73 in showdown equity.
Adding our showdown equity and our fold equity gives us $603.73, whereas we are risking $594 when only the BTN calls, making this very marginally +EV. The possibility of BTN calling with KJ or having a few random lighter hands in his raising range that he folds is probably enough to compensate for the risk of BB or MP2 waking up with 88, making this a shove with AJs.
AJo actually has about .5% more equity than AJs because of the possibility of backdoor club draws, making that a shove as well, but shoving KJ or worse would be a losing play when our opponents fold trips with a worse kicker. Even if we put KJs and KJo in BTN’s calling range, we don’t have enough equity to shove KJs profitably, and the other Villains are even less likely to call with these hands than is BTN.
In fact, our equity with KJ is so poor that even adding a few hands to Villain’s raise-folding range and thus increasing our fold equity isn’t enough to make it profitable.
Semi-Bluffing is Not Profitable
Against a calling range of {AJo,AJs,88}, Tc9c has 33%, making a shove slightly -EV. Adding KJs and KJo to Villains’ range gives Tc9c 36% equity when called, but it drastically lowers our fold equity, meaning that we still can’t shove it profitably. All other draws have much worse equity when called and thus will not be profitable, either.
This actually came as a surprise to me. My instinct was to shove Tc9c here, and I told Villain that I would have. It feels weird to shove only value hands in a spot where Villain is able to make some big folds, but it’s nonetheless correct in this case.
What if BTN Has a Draw?
BTN needs 36% equity to call this shove. Even if he has Tc9c, which is his highest equity draw vs. our shoving range, he has only 33% equity against {AJs,AJo,88}. Even if he were to raise with this hand, which isn’t a guarantee, he can’t call our shove.
If you include KJs and KJo in our shoving range, then he has the equity to call with Tc9c, but we’ve already seen why we can’t profitably shove those hands. Even putting Tc9c into his calling range doesn’t make it profitable for us to shove KcJ, which is our highest-equity KJ.
Conclusion
I’m shoving only {AJo,AJs,88} here. I’d cold call exactly JJ, and I’d fold everything else.
Since When is it Correct to Be Unbalanced?
MP2 and BTN started it. They both presumably have ranges that are really unbalanced. If I thought that they were both bluffing with optimal frequency, then I wouldn’t be folding KJ or Tc9c here. However, my reads and their betsizing suggest otherwise. Assuming BTN is correct that MP2 will not fold as often as he should to a raise, then he is correct to exploit that with an unbalanced raising range. The risk of me “exploiting” him by folding Tc9c isn’t a reason not to do it, it’s just something that’s going to make his raise slightly less profitable. BB and I will wake up with hands so infrequently that BTN is correct to focus on exploiting MP2, if he believes that he can.
What’s Your Range
Today I’ve got another variation on the “What’s Your Play?” theme. I’m going to give you the play, and you have to give me the range with which you would make it. Of course for the sake of discussion, please give us your reasoning as well.
Reads:
MP2 I’ve never played with before but he’s at a couple of tables and is probably decent, just a little too loose and a little too passive to be considered Tight-Aggressive.
BTN is a regular who often plays higher stakes than this. He plays a lot of tables at once and is smart but not the most aggressive/creative regular there is.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com
Button ($605.25)
Hero (SB) ($1134.25)
BB ($609)
UTG ($1229)
UTG+1 ($668.20)
MP1 ($591
MP2 ($702.15)
MP3 ($216.50)
CO ($726)
Preflop: Hero is SB with X X
3 folds, MP2 bets $12, 2 folds, Button calls $12, Hero calls $9, BB calls $6
Flop: ($48) J
, 8, J
(4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 bets $42, Button raises to $131, Hero raises to $1122.25 (All-In)
Note that I have both of these players covered by a wide margin. MP2 has about $650 behind, and BTN has about $462 behind, at the time that I shove.
So, what’s your range? We’re looking for two-card combinations here, so don’t just tell me “trips”- we want to know your kicker!
I’ll give everyone a few days to think and comment, and I’ll post results and my thoughts on Sunday.
The Trouble with Cold 4-Betting in PLO
Villain is an excellent NLHE player and surely competent enough to read my hand and play well in this spot. I feel like there are no just good options with my hand on a flop like this because it’s essentially face up.
PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter
UTG ($970.25)
MP ($192.75)
Button ($419.30)
Hero ($500.10)
BB ($154.15)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Tc, Ah, Jc, As.
UTG raises to $8, MP calls $8, Button raises to $24, Hero raises to $92, 1 fold, UTG folds, MP folds, Button calls $68.
Flop: ($202.40) 8d, 3c, 2h (2 players)
There’s about $320 left in the effective stacks, and I’m really lost about what to do here. My hand looks exactly like what it is, and on a board like this there’s virtually no way for me to have any kind of draw to back up a bare AA.
At the same time, this is a ridiculously tough spot to balance my pre-flop 4-betting range. I guess I could just not 4-bet at all, but I’m getting like 1/4 of the effective stacks in pre-flop and I’ve got good Aces, so I’m giving up a lot of pre-flop value if I go that route.
Against a really good opponent, though, I think I’m going to be behind when money goes in post-flop. Bet-folding is theoretically exploitable, but maybe best anyway?
The Ethics of a HUD: Follow-Up
In response to my recent The Poker Ethicist: HUDs post, Piefarmer left an interesting comment that got me thinking about a few more of the ethical dimensions surrounding HUDs and other technology that helps people play better poker:
Technology always pushes the boundaries, especially ethical boundaries. The primary way to think about these boundaries, I think, is the way Andrew presented them: Does everyone have the same understanding of what is allowed, and the same opportunity to use technologies which are allowed? If so, no ethical problem.
I think the conditions that he identifies are spot-on, and I want to delve a bit deeper into them. This time around I’ve got more questions than answers, so I’ll be very curious to hear your opinions on the subject.
The Right To Know
My claim is that use of any technology allowed by the rules of a casino or poker site is ethical, and that using anything disallowed is unethical. This is because, by choosing to play at a particular venue, players agree to both their host and their fellow players that they will follow the posted rules.
As piefarmer points out, this presumes that everyone understands the rules, or at least has the opportunity to do so. Exactly what obligation does this impose on a casino or poker site? Certainly the rules need to be readily available, in writing, for any player or potential player to inspect. Assuming that they are, then I would argue that choosing to play at that venue constitutes agreement to follow those rules, even if the player never actually reads them or fails to understand them correctly.
I think that there must also be a way for players to receive clarification as to the meaning of rules. At live venues, this requires readily available floor staff and properly trained dealers who can explain things clearly and accurately. As many of us know, getting a consistent answer to a question about the rules is not always a trivial matter when playing live poker, and I believe that to be a serious failing of a casino’s obligation to its players.
Is there any obligation on the part of online poker sites to affirmatively warn their players that others may be using HUDs and other technology? I’m sure there are people every day who start playing online and have no idea that such software is available or that their opponents may be using it.
It seems to me as long technology is mentioned somewhere in the Terms & Conditions, the site meets this obligation. I’m interested to hear people’s opinions on this, though. Is there anyone who would argue that sites have an obligation to be more assertive on this point? Perhaps announce to all their players, via e-mail or pop-up, whenever they add a new program to the list of approved software?
Equal Access
This is a thornier question. Is equal access to technology essential to make it ethical? What if there were some piece of poker software that somehow violated the laws of the US but were legal in most other countries. Would it be ethical for a poker site to permit the use of this technology? Would it be ethical for players to use it? What if there were some amazing software whose creator refused to share it with anyone other than a select group of his friends?
Also, is the cost of the software relevant? If there were some amazing software that was readily available for purchase and use by anyone but that cost thousands of dollars, would we still be able to say players had equal access to it?