He Should Have Barreled
Found this sort of interesting hand while randomly perusing the database. I don’t know for sure that I would have folded to a turn barrel, but I think Villain definitely ought to bet, and if I know that he isn’t betting this, then folding 88h on the turn is easy:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerSavvyPlus.com
Hero ($1411.25)
CO ($2202)
Button ($1577)
SB ($1606)
BB ($1101.25)
UTG ($1112)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 8d, 8h.
1 fold, Hero raises to $35, 1 fold, Button raises to $120, 2 folds, Hero calls $85.
Flop: ($255) 7h, 3h, Ah (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $160, Hero calls $160.
Turn: ($575) Ts (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.
River: ($575) 3d (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.
Final Pot: $575
Results in white below:
Hero has 8d 8h (two pair, eights and threes).
Button has 9c 8c (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins $575.
The only reason not to barrel a draw this good is fear of getting blown off of it or that I just won’t fold very often. The former shouldn’t be a big concern, as I’m unlikely to raise many hands worse than a flush. Sets are potentially good check-raising hands for me, but the pre-flop action makes them unlikely. As for whether I’ll fold, he can’t know for sure, so he needs to have a range for putting pressure on hands like the one I have. He shouldn’t be 3-betting a lot of Kxo or Qxo, so he won’t often have a big flush draw. That makes an open-ender, even without a heart, one of his highest-equity bluffing hands and a mandatory bet.