Foucault Just another PokerSavvy weblog

Test

• Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
  
  1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, Mak1963 calls $5
• Flop: ($15, 2 players)
  Mak1963 checks, Hero bets $12, Mak1963 raises to $34, Hero calls $22
• Turn: ($83, 2 players)
  Mak1963 bets $54, Hero calls $54
• River: ($191, 2 players)
  Mak1963 checks, Hero bets $175, Mak1963 goes all-in $174.35
• Final Pot: $539.70
  Mak1963 shows:
  Hero shows:
  Mak1963 wins $536.70 ( won +$267.35 )
  Hero wins $0.65 ( lost -$269.35 )
  View animated replay | Permanent Link

February

With another month behind us, it’s time to review my progress towards my Yearly Resolutions.

Goal 1: Average 15 Hours/Week Playing My “Regular” Games

I’ve found that 15 hours/week enables me to earn a pretty healthy income, far more than I could make at any real job I could get, without impeding too much on my lifestyle.

I consider my regular games to be anywhere from 2/4 NL to 50/100 NL as well as big tournaments like the Sunday Majors, the FTOPS, and the WCOOP; time spent playing any of these will count towards my goal.

Ahead of pace by nearly a week!

Goal 2: Earn $X in NLHE Cash Games

It’s very tough to predict or control what I will earn playing tournaments. With cash games, though, it’s mostly a question of game selection and putting in hours. It’s not something I’m going to announce publicly, but I am going to set a target, and I am going to put in extra hours towards the end of year if I’m on pace to come up short.

Pretty much exactly on pace. February wasn’t such a great month, but getting off to a good start in January was a big help.

Goal 3: Earn Supernova status on PokerStars

My plan for this is to table select as usual in the beginning of each month, and then assess my progress towards the end of each month. If I’m on pace to come up short, I’m going to put in extra hours above and beyond my weekly goal just grinding 9 tables of $1/2 NLHE (or smaller) until I hit my VPP target for the month. Hopefully this is something I can do relatively stress-free, just an hour or two at a time, when I’m not in the mood to put in a proper session in higher stakes games. To be honest, my hourly rate should still be quite good multi-tabling SSNL, so hopefully this will incentivize me to make a little money in what would otherwise be downtime.

Well ahead of schedule. I’m almost 20% of the way there, with 19809.9 VPPs under my belt. I’d only need to have a little over 16K to be on pace, so that’s a nice little buffer in case I slack off later in the year.

Goal 4: Monetize This Blog

I know I keep saying it, but sooner or later I really am going to look into making money a little more directly from this blog. I feel like it’s right on the cusp of being pretty profitable. That doesn’t have to mean ads, though it might. Maybe I’ll…

Under discussion.

Goal 5: Write a Book

I’ve talked about this before, but this is the first time it’s ever been an explicit goal. I’ve already got some downtime sketched out in the next few months to work on this and have been kicking around some ideas in my head. Rather than trying to write one big, expensive e-book as a lot of people have done, I’m thinking of doing a series of smaller, modular works that could be purchased separately or as a set. Those of you who read this blog regularly are going to be a big chunk of the target audience, so keep an eye out for posts in the next few weeks soliciting your input about what you’d like to see in a poker book authored by yours truly.

Not much progress. I’m pretty good at churning out small writing assignments, but it’s tough to get my head around such a big one!

Goal 6: Average One Blog Post Per Day

I know it’s been a little quiet on here of late. Part of that is the holidays, and part of it is just laziness. I want to get back to posting once a day. There will probably be more non-poker content, and not all of the poker stuff will be equally in-depth, but overall you can expect to see more and better content here.

So close. 57 pots in 59 days. I’ll make it up by the end of the year, I swear!

Goal 7: Average Five Hours of Coaching Per Week

Coaching was extremely fun and rewarding for me last year. So far, except for my group seminars, I haven’t done much to market myself as a coach or actively solicit students. I’ve mostly just worked with students as they’ve come to me, and so so far that’s kept me just about as busy as I’d like to be with coaching. I want to ramp it up a bit this year by setting a monthly goal and actively soliciting students if necessary to ensure that I’ve got a regular stream of students.

I really fell behind this month, with the NAPT and related travel taking me largely out of commission for two weeks.

I’m in the process of lining up new students, so if you’re interested, check out my poker coaching information.

Goal 7: Average an Hour a Day of Dedicated Studying and Improvement

I’m going to be very broad about what this can include: reading books, watching videos, reviewing hands in Hold ‘Em Manager, talking poker with a friend, and even blogging (when it’s related to reviewing my play).

Falling further behind. I just bought Leakbuster for Hold ‘Em Manager, which should give me some impetus to review my game and also make it less of hassle. Look for a review of that in the coming month as well, once I’ve had a chance to play with it for a while.

Goal 8: Use Hold ‘Em Manager

I switched from Poker Tracker to Hold ‘Em Manager last year. PT2 is great, but HEM is just better. For the last part of the year, I was playing without it on my laptop. It does get in my way sometimes, but I’d rather learn how to work with it than insist on playing without it.

I’m getting better with this. There’s another HEM add-on called Hold ‘Em Vision Pro that might help me to use my HUD even more effectively, I’m probably going to look into that once I’ve got a handle on Leakbuster.

Goal 9: Finish the Year with a 4BB/100 Win-Rate at 5/10 NL and/or Higher

Same goal as last year, since I didn’t achieve it but still think it’s very viable. It might be cheating a little, but I’m going to allow myself to count my results from bigger games towards this goal or not depending on whether I do better in them than I do in 5/10 (this was the cast last year). Basically, if I am at 4 BB/100 over a big sample at 5/10, then I don’t care how I’m doing in bigger games. If I’m not doing quite that well at 5/10 but am at 4 BB/100 if I also count bigger games, then that’s certainly a fine result as well.

Now with about 27K hands played, I’m at 3.98 BB/100. So close! Unfortunately, that number only gets worse if I add in higher stakes games.

Goal 10: Play 50,000 Hands of Heads Up NLHE at 5/10 and Higher

Last year, my win rate at heads up was twice what it was at ring games. Plus, it’s a great way to improve poker skills in general, and at stakes above 10/20, it’s often the only way to get action.

Gross. Almost 10K hands, and -8.5 BB/100.

How did February treat you?

Continuation Betting for Advanced Players

My latest poker strategy article, now appearing in the March 2010 issue of Two Plus Two Magazine, explores the many nuances of continuation betting against tough opponents. Here’s an excerpt from Continuation Betting for Advanced Players:

Poker is also a math game and the best way to resolve those “But what if he knows that I know that he knows that I know…” paradoxes is to look for some mathematical grounding for your strategy. In this case, if you can make an educated guess about your opponent’s pre-flop calling range, and if you can honestly identify your own pre-flop range, then you can determine which of you a particular flop is more likely to help.

Please let me know what you think of it!

Turning a Set Into a Bluff

I’m probably good here sometimes, and it’s close whether a call is better than a fold, but I think raising wins me the pot almost 100% of the time:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

UTG+1 ($1114)
MP1 ($1249.25)
MP2 ($1000)
MP3 ($1099.75)
CO ($1656)
Hero (Button) ($4392.25)
SB ($1693)
BB ($1205)
UTG ($1257.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
6 folds, Hero bets $25, SB calls $20, 1 fold

Flop: ($60) 10, 8, A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $44, SB calls $44

Turn: ($148) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $110, Hero calls $110

River: ($368) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $285, Hero raises to $1223, 1 fold

Total pot: $938 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show 10, 10 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $935

Villain can very easily have a straight here, most like QJ for a flopped double gutter, but he never has a flush unless it’s exactly QcJc. I, on the other hand, could very easily have a flush, and I don’t think this is a spot where Villain expects to see many bluffs.

February 21st, 2010 | Author: foucault

My My starting table had not a lot of chips but a couple of notable players, including Owen “ocrowe” Crowe, Andrew Chen, Jonathan “driverseati” Tamayo, and Lauren Kling. We broke after less than an hour, but I still managed to play a few interesting pots. Also, a very friendly reader named Mark (hi, Mark) recognized me from the Blog and introduced himself, which was cool. A kid at the PCA recognized my voice from Poker Savvy, but I think this is the first time a blog reader I didn’t already know has recognized me.

500/1000/100, I open complete 73o in the SB, Lauren checks.

Flop Ks Js Jc, I check planning to call a bet and bluff river. She checks behind.

Turn 7c, I check, she bets 3000, I call.

River 9d, we check, I show my hand, and it’s good. Owen comments on my playing 73o and predicts that I won’t be giving a lot of walks.

I open raise to 2400 with Ad 2d on the Button, Owen calls on the BB.

Flop Kd 9d 5c. He checks, I bet 3300, he calls.

Turn 8d, he bets into me 6400. This is close, but in retrospect I think a big raise to 24K or so is best (I have about 50K behind). He’s never getting away from any flush and may stack off with two-pair or worse putting me on a semi-bluff. However, I called.

River 2d, he check-folds for 9000 and tells me he had two-pair.

Last hand before table breaks, I open raise to 2600 with 33 in MP, prematurely balding Middle Easternish guy calls in BB.

Flop Ad Qd Qh. He bets 4000, I call. I put him on a Q or a bluff, possible with a flush draw. 33 is one of the worst hands to bluff catch with, but I think he’s going to play very predictably on the turn and I may even be able to bluff him off of a turned or rivered pair, so I call.

Turn 3d. He bets 9000, I call.

River blank, he check-calls 10K and looks sick when I show my turned full house. He told me he had a Q, which I’m sure is true.

This one I think I bungled badly. Against a guy who’s capable of hand-reading, bluffing, and thin value betting, I think a call is OK. Against a random live player, I should probably shove turn. He’s rarely bluffing, never folding a flush, and probably not folding trips. Failing that, I should bet bigger on the river, since he’s always either check-folding or check-calling with a Q. Probably 15-17K is best.

My new table was a lot tougher, with Andrew Robl, Paul Wasicka, and a few other solid players whom I didn’t recognize by name. The table also featured wild-haired backgammon legend Paul Magriel. I actually played with Paul on Day 1 of the PCA, and though I don’t think he remembered me, we had a little interaction there. I was wearing my Foucault t-shirt, and the dealer asked who the man on my shirt was.Since most people don’t know who he is anyway, I usually answer that question with “a writer I like”, unless I’m in a book store or coffee shop or something like that.

Paul, however, asked, “Which writer?”

“Michel Foucault.”

“I thought that was Foucault. I don’t much care for him myself.”

Looking Paul up and down, I answered, “Yeah, I figured if anyone at the table would know who Foucault was, it would be you.”

Anyway, at 600/1200/100, Paul opened in MP2 to 3400. He had less than 25K behind, so I made it 8200 to go with QQ on the Button. He hemmed and hawed and called. The flop came 9d 8d 3d, and he open shoved his last 15K or so. I had the Qd, but even without it, this would be an easy call. He showed me 98s for a flopped two pair, but with an overpair and a flush draw, I was still a slight favorite. I didn’t get there, though, and that one hurt me.

A while later, Paul open limped in MP1, and a decent guy who was almost certainly an online tournament pro raised to 3700 with 26K behind. I woke up with JJ and shoved in 38K or so, only to get called by QQ.

Next hand, the UTG player raised, and I was forced to fold whatever garbage I had. Hand after that, I was in MP1 and, without looking at the clock, folded T4o. Then, I saw there were only 2 minutes left in the level, and I realized I should have shoved any 2 before the blinds went up and cut even further into my fold equity. It turns out I would have been called by KQ and lost, but that’s not the point.

I spent 15 minutes on break, came back to 800/1600/200 blinds, and shoved in 7700 with Jc7c UTG+1 on the first hand. The guy on my left called, and it folded to Magriel who put the guy all-in for about 40K. After long deliberation, the first caller folded, and Paul showed Kc 2c. Pretty great spot for me, but the flop gave me nothing to work with, and a K on the turn sealed my fate.

I played some hands well, but failed to get full value from my monsters on more than one occasion. Overall, though, I just don’t think this one was mine to win. I ran good in medium pots but bad in big pots, and that’s just not the way to do it.

On the plus side, I got back to my room in time to late register for the $500 FTOPS main event, which I’m currently playing. Thanks to everyone who followed along and wished me well.

NAPT Venetian Day 1

The table started out pretty soft, with only two players I recognized at the table. Unfortunately, Jon “fatalerror” Aguiar and Bill Chen were on my immediate left. Bill didn’t get involved in too many pots, but Jon sure did.

Early on, I raised 55 on my CO and called a 3-bet from a fishy player in the BB. I made a questionable call on a 932 flop, then turned a 5 to stack his KK.

The table kept getting tougher, with Amnon Fillippi and a few other solid players (but also Dennis Phillips) filling empty seats. A tight-bad player open limped for 300, I made it 1300 with QQ, Jon called, and Amnon shoved 15K from the Button. I reshoved without much thought but ran into AA.

I’d been playing pretty tightly, but at 300/600/75 I opened to 1600 with K9o in MP3. Jon called in the CO, and Amnon called in the BB. Flop came Kh Kd 6d. I bet slightly over half pot, Jon folded, and Amnon called. Turn 8h, he checks, I bet slightly over half pot again, 6400. He tanks and shoves about 20K, I call, he has Jd 5d. River Qd, and he doubles through me and leaves me at 24K.

I work my way up to about 28K when an aggressive younger guy opens to 2100 in the CO (blinds 400/800/100). Dennis Phillips calls on the Button, and I pick up AA in the SB. I make it 6900, kid 4-bets, Dennis folds what he later claimed was JJ, and I more than double up to about 60K.

A few hands later, I open to 2400 with JJ UTG+1. Dennis re-raises to 6500 with about 21K behind. I reluctantly fold.

Overall I had a tough seat at a tough table and what I’d consider below average luck, but I managed to come out of it with 51,400 chips. We started with 872 runners, and there are 510 left, so my stack is almost exactly average, which would be 51,294.

Sorry the Twitter updates were sporadic, my e-mail-to-Twitter thing isn’t working quite right.

I Guess This Counts as a Bad Beat..?

A Set, A Big Bet, and a Board That’s Wet

illain’s flop bet, representing 75% of the pot and about 15% of the effective stacks, puts me in an awkward spot with my whole range (and is therefore a good one). Actually, I can play good draws pretty easily by making a pot-committing raise, but with say one marginal pair it’s a scary board to flat call but raising requires committing a lot of stack relative to the pot against a non-favorable range. Bluff-raising is similarly awkward, but it’s a big bet to float, particularly in a spot where Villain could turn a lot of draws and fire a pot-committing semi-bluff. Even here, with a monster, I’d kind of like to raise but am afraid that shows too much strength, as I can’t really raise and leave Villain room to 3-bet with any perception of fold equity.

On the plus side, I don’t think he’d play a big draw like this, as his bet size enables me to put him in a tough spot with a raise. Thus, I’m more comfortable flatting with a set here than I otherwise would be. I’m actually kind of hoping a club does come on the turn so that Villain will semi-bluff shove. I definitely think flatting is best here, as Villain can’t very well check-fold his overpairs on most turns, plus there’s room for him to turn a second best hand if he has overcards or to turn a draw he can semi-bluff. It might seem like there are a lot of free cards that could kill my hand, such that slowplaying is bad, but based on Villain’s sizing I’m actually not too worried about the draws.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $80.00 BB (5 handed) -  Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

SB ($7797)
BB ($16240)
UTG ($19134)
Hero (MP) ($8757)
Button ($7535.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6, 6
1 fold, Hero bets $240, 1 fold, SB raises to $800, 1 fold, Hero calls $560

Flop: ($1680) 6, 5, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $1250, Hero calls $1250

Turn: ($4180) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3210, 1 fold

Total pot: $4180 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show 6, 6.
Outcome: Hero won $4177

Thin Turn Check Raise

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $8.00 BB (3 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

Button ($816.20)
Hero (SB) ($2062.85)
BB ($2710)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 6
1 fold, Hero bets $32, BB calls $24

Flop: ($64) 5, 6, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $44, BB calls $44

Turn: ($152) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $96, Hero raises to $266, BB calls $170

River: ($684) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Total pot: $684 | Rake: $1

Results:
Hero had A, 6 (two pair, sixes and fives).
BB had 7, 8 (straight, nine high).
Outcome: BB won $683

In a blind battle, I expect to be way ahead here even after getting called on the flop. It’s such a rare spot for me to check-raise that I expect Villain to bet not just floats but also any pair (which will be mostly 4’s and 6’s, rarely anything I’m behind) and maybe even Ace-high. If he 3-bets, I’m comfortable folding as he’ll have trips or better the vast majority of the time.

I even expect to be ahead of his turn calling range, since he can probably have a lot of draws. I check planning to call the river, expecting that he won’t value bet at all thin, and while he could have a bluff, I think busted straight draws are more likely. The results of this hand actually bolster my confidence in my plan, as it establishes that he isn’t value betting at all thinly on the river. When he does bet, he’ll have exactly a flush or a bluff, and I think a call will show a profit.

He happened to hit on the turn this time, but sometimes that happens when you go for thin value.

Level 2 Bet Sizing

This is a blatant example of a guy who is thinking about my hand and what he wants me to do but not about what I will be thinking or what his hand will look like to me:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (5 handed) - Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

MP ($670)
Hero (Button) ($5377)
SB ($2000)
BB ($2030)
UTG ($1813.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 7
2 folds, Hero bets $50, 1 fold, BB raises to $185, Hero calls $135

Flop: ($380) 6, Q, 7 (2 players)
BB bets $240, Hero calls $240

Turn: ($860) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $480, Hero raises to $4952 (All-In), BB calls $1125 (All-In)

River: ($4070) J (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $4070 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 7, 7 (three of a kind, sevens).
BB had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $4067

This isn’t a spot where he’s likely to fire a second barrel on a pure bluff, so his range for betting turn is going to be semi-bluffs and value hands. With a value hand here, he chooses a bet size that presumably gives me room to shove draws of my own. Trouble is, it’s pretty obvious here that that’s what he’s trying to do, and therefore I should not shove my draws but rather just call with them and hope either to get there or river a good card to bluff. With his draws, I imagine he bets a lot more, making clear that he is pot committed so that I don’t have room to rebluff him with a draw when he’d rather I fold.