Foucault Just another PokerSavvy weblog

Tales From a Summer Camp: The New England Seashore

One summer during college I worked at a day camp for kids from Cambridge. Most people know the city for Harvard and MIT, but actually a good chunk of it is projects and other low-income housing. The camp consisted mostly of minority youth from low-income backgrounds, but there were a few white kids there because they didn’t have money for camp either or because their liberal academic parents wanted them to experience brown people. I was primarily responsible for a group of twelve 7- to 9-year-olds.

The camp scheduled field trips one day a week, every week for all of the kids. Mostly they were to educational city attractions like the science center, the zoo, etc. The most ambitious trip we took was to a beach that was more than an hour’s drive from the camp.

For logistical reasons, they scheduled and planned these trips far in advance, so we didn’t have the option of postponing or rescheduling for bad weather. The day that our group went to the beach, it was windy and overcast, not exactly swimming weather. Kids being kids, though, many of them wanted to get in the ocean, and of course that necessitated that most of the chaperons be in the water as well.

We chaperons also didn’t have the option of getting either completely wet or completely dry. Rather, we had to stand, anywhere from thigh- to waist-deep, in the ocean while the kids played inside the wide circle formed by the adults. This was both boring and uncomfortable, as we sat there half-wet and shivering and whipped by a chilly wind.

Terrence, one of my kids whom you may remember as the tough guy from an earlier TFASC, came running awkwardly out of the water and seemingly on the verge of tears. A female counselor standing next to me walked over and asked him what was wrong. He shook his head and wouldn’t answer.

“What’s wrong, Terrence? You can tell me.”

“Nothing,” he muttered. This was odd behavior for him and had my attention. She continued to press him, and finally he shouted, “Man, my balls is froze!”

He Should Have Barreled

Found this sort of interesting hand while randomly perusing the database. I don’t know for sure that I would have folded to a turn barrel, but I think Villain definitely ought to bet, and if I know that he isn’t betting this, then folding 88h on the turn is easy:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerSavvyPlus.com

Hero ($1411.25)
CO ($2202)
Button ($1577)
SB ($1606)
BB ($1101.25)
UTG ($1112)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8d, 8h.
1 fold, Hero raises to $35, 1 fold, Button raises to $120, 2 folds, Hero calls $85.

Flop: ($255) 7h, 3h, Ah (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $160, Hero calls $160.

Turn: ($575) Ts (2 players)

Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($575) 3d (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: $575

Results in white below:
Hero has 8d 8h (two pair, eights and threes).
Button has 9c 8c (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins $575.

The only reason not to barrel a draw this good is fear of getting blown off of it or that I just won’t fold very often. The former shouldn’t be a big concern, as I’m unlikely to raise many hands worse than a flush. Sets are potentially good check-raising hands for me, but the pre-flop action makes them unlikely. As for whether I’ll fold, he can’t know for sure, so he needs to have a range for putting pressure on hands like the one I have. He shouldn’t be 3-betting a lot of Kxo or Qxo, so he won’t often have a big flush draw. That makes an open-ender, even without a heart, one of his highest-equity bluffing hands and a mandatory bet.

EPT Madrid River Bluff-Call

There’s a full trip report in the works, but for now, here’s my favorite hand that I played in the EPT Madrid main event:

Blinds are 150/300/25. The UTG is a very aggressive young Scandinavian with a huge stack. He opens to 750, and I call in the CO with 66 and 45K in my stack. Action folds to the BB, who calls. This is no surprise, as his VP$IP is about 50%.

The flop comes 732r. UTG bets about half the pot, I call, and the BB overcalls. Fish though he is, I don’t think he has many 2′s or 3′s in his range. I did once see him peel the flop with AQ unimproved, so he could just have overs, but I thought there was a good chance he had a 7.

The turn was a 9, and my opponents checked to me. There was nothing for me to do but check behind. The BB wasn’t the sort of guy you try to bluff off of a decent pair, so I had pretty much given up after his flop call. As this hand will demonstrate, though, you should always be paying attention and considering your options, even when you think the result is a foregone conclusion.

The river brought an A and completed a potential backdoor flush draw. The BB checked, UTG bet about half the pot, and suddenly I saw an exciting opportunity. I thought that UTG would bluff all of his air on this river, and that while he would also value bet his Aces, he was a lot more likely to have random suited connectors and broadway cards than to have random Ax.

The catch, of course, was that I thought there was a good chance BB had me beat. Station that he was, though, I still didn’t think he would overcall an Ace river with just a pair of 7′s. That would be bad even for him. So I called without too much thought, wanting to project confidence to the BB, who did in fact fold.

UTG showed QT, and I won the pot. I watched BB closely for a reaction that might indicate he’d folded the winner, but I got nothing one way or the other. I like to think that he did, though. Ever since reading Doyle Brunson’s famous story about calling the river with J-high in a 3-way pot to scare out the best hand and beat the third player’s busted straight draw, I’ve wanted to pull off a play like that. This wasn’t nearly as cool, but I was pretty excited about it nonetheless.

Gray Friday

My current 2+2 Magazine article, Gray Friday, is one of the most personal I’ve published. It’s about what was going through my head around the time of the online poker indictments and by extension a reflection on my relationship to online poker in general:

It still seems surreal to me, so many years later, that I can make any living, let alone such an extravagant one, clicking buttons on a computer screen. What purpose does this serve? Who is helped by my facility with hand reading, range analysis, and turn overbetting? Would the world, or even any person other than myself, be any worse off if I were no longer able to ply my “trade”? We may be about to find out.

The whole thing has always felt too good to be true, and now I feel like I am waking up from a dream. Something about this seems right and proper, in a cosmic sense, like someone has finally realized I’ve been getting away with something for too long.

How to Float a Good Player

Dipping into the archives to bring you some poker content…

Villain and I were starting a game. He’s pretty solid and not someone I’d ordinarily go out of my way to play heads up, especially not at 2/4 where there’s easier competition available.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerSavvyPlus.com

Hero ($402)
BB ($400)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Qd, Kd.
Hero raises to $12, BB raises to $44, Hero calls $32.

Flop: ($88) 5s, 2h, Jd (2 players)
BB bets $52, Hero calls $52.

Turn: ($192) Td (2 players)
BB bets $162, Hero raises to $306, BB folds.

Final Pot: $660
Results in white below:
No showdown. Hero wins $660.

The key to floating successfully against a good player is having a lot of turn cards that improve your hand (or that you’ll be comfortable continuing on, anyway). I happen to get a particularly good one, but here that could be any A, K, Q, T, 9, or diamond.

I specify “against a good player”, because it’s much easier against someone who will just bet the flop and then give up if he has nothing. In those cases it doesn’t matter terribly much what you have, but against a good player who will fire second barrels with a good frequency, you need to have a hand that plays well on a lot of turns.

Black Friday: My (Non-)Thoughts

I want to begin with appreciation and an apology. I’m flattered that so many people have been eager to hear my thoughts on the recent events that rocked the online poker world, and I’m sorry that this post is going to disappoint you.

The truth is that I don’t know what to think and at this point I don’t want to speculate. Unfortunately my relationship with PokerStars doesn’t give me access to any inside information, so I’m as clueless as anyone about what’s going on and what will happen next. I do think the situation will get clearer soon, though I don’t know how soon.

I know that for some of you this is an apocalyptic moment, and I wish that I could be of more help. The best I can do is point you to the best advice I’ve come across for dealing with the present situation, which comes from Jared Tendler:

“It’s hard to know what this means, but I do think it’s important to avoid speculating or get caught up listening to others who are doing it. Stay tuned into facts, listen to credible people, and do what you think is best. It’s easy to think only of the absolute worst case, and on one level it can be smart to prepare for that possibility, it also many not be the most helpful when ultimately figuring out what you need to do. Try to brainstorm some options so you’re prepared to make decisions as more information becomes certain and avoid making premature definitive conclusions.”

…

“Right now you’re looking for answers. The problem is that some of you are so desperate for answers you’ll listen to almost anything or anyone. That desperation is very similar to feeling desperate to win. You’ll do almost anything to shake this feeling because the uncertainty is almost too much to handle.

The reality is that there aren’t many answers out there right now. If you try to force an answer too soon, you’ll be making the same mistake if you were forcing the action because you need to win money right now. You have to stick to a sound and logical strategy.”

Jared has a lot more to say on the subject, and he’s made a free excerpt from his new book available, so I encourage you to read the whole post if you’re feeling anxious right now.

Finally, I want to thank everyone who has expressed concern for my situation. It’s very touching to hear from you, but the truth is that I’ll be fine no matter what happens. I’ve got plenty of money saved up and actually enjoyed having a free weekend for once.

Despite my silence the last few days, I do intend to keep blogging. I’ve got plenty of poker-related stuff in the hopper, but you’ll probably see an increase in the number of stories, musings, and low-poker-content posts. I get the sense that some of you would enjoy that anyway. I know I will.

The Poker Ethicist: Income Tax

As “The Poker Philosopher”, and in honor of one of my favorite non-poker blogs, I occasionally consider the ethical dimensions of a high-profile controversy in the poker community. Today, in honor of the US’ April 15th deadline for filing, I address the underreporting of income, which many poker players are tempted to do when they win money on sites based overseas. Older editions of The Poker Ethicist are available in the archives.

It surprises me how openly otherwise honest poker players discuss their tax evasion. It is not at all uncommon to see thinly veiled references to money laundering or wink-and-nod jokes about unreported income on poker forums. Whereas the poker community is (rightfully) quick to heap its scorn upon multiaccounters, scammers, and even people who still play on UB, there seems to be no community norm against tax evasion.

In the United States as in many other countries, gambling winnings are subject to income tax. This is true even if earned overseas, even if the sites are not regulated in the US, and even if the income is not reported to the government by the sites.

Income tax is a crucial source of revenue for governments and provides funding for vital public goods as diverse as professional fire fighters and law enforcement, military and national defense, food safety and public health inspection, and roads and infrastructure. These are goods from which virtually all citizens benefit and to whose costs all citizens are expected to contribute.

They are also a classic tragedy of the commons. Because their costs are shared by hundreds of millions of people, no single individual feels that his own contribution will affect these goods in a meaningful way. Thus the temptation to under-report one’s income, preserving funds for the immediate gratification of personal use and continuing to enjoy public goods without contributing one’s own fair share. This freeloading is cheating as surely as multi-accounting a tournament or scamming a backer, yet it is far more accepted in the poker community.

I want now to address a few of the common justifications for this unethical behavior:

I Don’t Like How the Government Spends My Money

No one supports everything that the government does. That’s part of living in a democracy. Cheating on your taxes withholds support not only from the government programs and services you dislike but also from those you endorse and from which you benefit.

There are legitimate channels for expressing disapproval of particular government programs, or of government in general, but underreporting income is not one of them. You can campaign and vote for politicians who support your views, voice disapproval to your representatives, or participate in an organized protest.

Even nonpayment of taxes can be a legitimate form of protest, assuming that one is willing to accept the consequences. Henry David Thoreau famously chose prison over payment of a poll tax, his form of protest against legalized slavery.

Thoreau’s willingness to invite punishment for his nonpayment of taxes infused his protest with moral authority and raised awareness about the problem. A college professor of mine once said, “Martin Luther King didn’t write the Letter From a Birmingham Days Inn”. King, inspired by Thoreau, employed civil disobedience publicly to draw attention to racism and discrimination. Forcing the government to punish him dramatized the problem and brought it to the attention of the world.

Cheating on your taxes in secret accomplishes none of these lofty goals. If you have serious grievances with your government, underreporting your income is a cowardly and unethical response. I suspect that in most cases this is merely a pretense for not wanting to pay one’s fair share, but those who really feel strongly about the issue should be issue to make their opinions known publicly and accept the consequences.

I Don’t Use Government Services

Do you drive? Do you fly? Do you have a cellular phone? Do you buy food and otherwise participate in commerce? If your house caught on fire, would you want to have it put out? Do you enjoy not being robbed in the street or invaded by hostile neighbors? Then you benefit from government services.

It’s virtually impossible to avoid. Unless you are a hermit with a self-sustaining garden and a shotgun (and probably even then), you benefit from government services. If you think that the amount you pay is out of proportion to the benefit you receive, you’re probably wrong, but in any event it doesn’t matter. What you pay and what you receive and are determined by a democratic process of which you are a part. Which brings us to…

My Taxes Are Too High

Again, everyone would prefer to pay lower taxes. This isn’t something you get to decide unilaterally. Your taxes are set by your government in proportion to the services provided by that government. Of course everyone disagrees about the proper balance here. That’s what politics is for. The process is far from perfect, but there is a process.

If you have deep disagreements with your government’s tax code, then you can advocate for change or you can leave. You cannot ethically choose to remain a citizen, benefit from government services, and withhold your contribution thereto.

Ironically, if no one cheated on their taxes, then everyone’s tax rate would be lower. Refusing to pay your fair share simply distributes your share to honest taxpayers, who really do end up paying too much because the scofflaws are not paying enough.

The System is Designed to be Gamed

It’s true that most tax codes are designed with quite a few loopholes, exceptions, and deductions. Tax codes are designed with the understanding that many citizens will aggressively take advantage of these opportunities to decrease their tax burden. Accountants skilled in this process command huge salaries.

However, there is a difference between taking advantage of loopholes and underreporting income, and it’s essentially the difference between cheating and playing a game fairly. If you report your income honestly, track your deductions aggressively, and end up writing off a fair bit of your income as untaxable in a way that you can defend in an audit, then more power to you. If you underreport your income and exaggerate your expenses, then you are cheating.

This post is addressed to all of the honest, upstanding poker players who wouldn’t dream of cheating during a game, scamming a backer, or welching on a bet. Sorry to break it to you, but if you aren’t paying tax on your online poker income, then you’re a cheater, no two ways about it.

Sunday Nittaments

I was tweating yesterday about some big folds that I made in my Sunday tournaments. At least one person expressed interest, so here are the two biggest.

Villain was 11/8, and I’d been reasonable to tight, though admittedly my Team Online avatar does seem to make people a little suspicious:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerSavvyPlus.com

MP1 (t16008)
MP2 (t82378)
MP3 (t37274)
CO (t63325)
Button (t78970)
SB (t31666)
BB (t69348)
UTG (t62171)
Hero (t67844)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Qh, Qd.
1 fold, Hero raises to t4000, 4 folds, Button raises to t10000, 2 folds, Hero calls t6000.

Flop: (t21400) 4d, Jc, 9s (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t24000, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t45400

Results in white below:

No showdown. Button wins t45400.

The cold caller is 13/9:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerSavvyPlus.com

CO (t58623)
Button (t21553)
SB (t54977)
BB (t56432)
UTG (t12275)
UTG+1 (t23292)
MP1 (t41378)
MP2 (t35184)
Hero (t39738)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Kc, Kd.

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t2125, 2 folds, Hero raises to t3999, CO calls t3999, 3 folds, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: (t10648) 8c, Td, Qc (2 players)

Hero checks, CO bets t6300, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t16948

Results in white below:

No showdown. CO wins t16948.

Slowplaying Article / Slowplaying Top Set

Editor's note:  This is the combination of two blog posts from Andrew, both about 'slowplaying'.

Slowplaying

My latest poker strategy article, Slowplaying, is a meditation on a variety of topics related to slowplaying: what it costs you, when to do it, which types of boards and opponents are best, etc. Here’s an excerpt from the introduction:

“[Y]ou must weigh the advantages of slowplaying against what you would have won from second-best hands that would have paid you off on three streets but end up losing a smaller pot because of your slowplay. In a fixed limit game, this usually costs you just one small bet if you slowplay the flop. In a big bet game, it costs you a lot more, because pot and bet sizes grows geometrically. In other words, a bigger pot on the flop means a bigger pot on the turn means a much bigger pot, and therefore a much bigger bet, on the river. Thus, slowplaying in big bet games carries a much larger cost than it does in fixed limit games.”

As always, I’m eager to hear what you think!

Slowplaying Top Set

In my recent poker strategy article, Slowplaying, I emphasize how much a failure to build the pot can cost you when you slowplay a huge hand in NLHE. One of the exceptions I discuss is when you have an aggressive opponent who may help you to build the pot:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerSavvyPlus.com

Hero ($1000)
SB ($991.70)
BB ($452.75)
UTG ($1728.50)
UTG+1 ($1187)
MP1 ($1384)
MP2 ($2107.50)
MP3 ($1040)
CO ($1110)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9d, 9s.
4 folds, MP3 raises to $25, CO calls $25, Hero calls $25, 2 folds.

Flop: ($90) 9h, 4s, 2h (3 players)
MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($90) Th (3 players)
MP3 bets $65.25, CO folds, Hero raises to $222, MP3 raises to $508.75, Hero raises to $975, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: $1573.75

It’s also important to note how unlikely a second-best hand is on the flop. This is a great spot to stab at the pot as a bluff or for protection with a vulnerable pair (which I may end up turning into a bluff if called), precisely because it’s unlikely either opponent can call three big bets.

Although there are some draws, the low straight is unlikely, and flushes are discounted since neither player bet. The pre-flop raiser in particular can be expected to continuation bet a flush draw almost always, so when he bets the turn I think it’s far more likely he turned a flush draw than a flush. Even when he reps it hard, I don’t give him credit, and sure enough he seems like he didn’t even have the draw.

Raising to Induce