This is like Groundhog Day
9th in the Stars 100k tonight, AKs < 99 for a massive pot aipf, flop 955, obviously. Good game me. I just want to run good in the end game again, even just once. Between this and the Mulligan Sunday its pretty frustrating. But thats all for whining tonight. Also, good luck to SirWatts (Micheal Watson) who is in the final 18 of the LAPC WPT event.
~Justin
P.S. Obama did great in the debate tonight, a small silver lining to my night.
P.P.S. I just spent 45 minutes rendering the video from this and got an error at 99%, pretty standard for me lately, get close, and have it F up at the end.
Psychology and the insane variance in MTTs
A while back I wrote a short post for a poker forum about how to combat the variance you find as a tournament pro. I will have it posted in the articles section here but I am realizing how important it is to really embrace some lower stakes tournaments that you normally play and just prepare yourself to truly grind. I was an old school grinder that used to play 8 tables at about all times and would basically fire up any tournaments I felt I was +EV in. I played rebuys from $5-$100 and freezeouts as low as $10 and as high as $2500. Yet something happened after I did so well in the WSOP this year. I became bored with online poker after the super deepstacked play of live and wanted to embrace the new challenges that live poker offered. All of the sudden I went from someone who embraced a $10 freezeout in my schedule to someone who couldnt take a $100 freezeout seriously. I would enter some high limit tournaments and more times then not would leave with either no cashes or an insignificant one. I was riding an absolute roller coaster of variance because I was just playing tournaments that, while I had some edge, this edge wasn't nearly as big as it was at the lower limits. So when I ran bad, I ran really bad and the mental effects this took constantly turned small downswings into long downswings.
What they say really is true, good results lead to good play and bad results lead to bad play. When you are running bad you usually start to slowly play worse and worse and it just exacerbates the problem. The last month or so, after starting to coach for this site I began some self reflection and came to the most elementary of conclusions about why I continued to constantly go up and down, I was constantly getting negative feedback. While losing in a $100r, $1000 and $200 in a night might be almost identical in terms of final profit as it would be to lose in these tournaments in addition to final tabling a $10 freezeout, but psychology they are polar opposites. If you understand tournament variance you can understand that a winning player can go an entire calendar year in the red without it even being that significant a losing streak. Think about that. A +EV player can easily go an entire year and lose money. This is the form of poker we accept and this is the variance that goes with it. You really have to do anything you can to mitigate short term variance in addition to the psychological toll that losing 90% of the time takes on you. Playing some smaller tournaments with smaller fields can really help to initiate some positive feedback in a sometimes unbearably negative format of poker. It might not pad your bankroll a whole hell of a lot, but it just might help you sleep a little better of a long day of tournaments.
Why oh why Sundays?!?!
Well today pretty much sucked. Got ITM in the Stars 2nd chance then ran TT into AA for a big pot. No biggie, happens. Then made a deep run in the 100r but lost a huge flip TT < AK, then got 10th in the Mulligan when I lost this pot on the FT bubble. Would have been 2nd in chips, $45k for first. Awesome! I always say that everyone runs the same and I stand by this statement. Just last few months I have been running bad at the wrong times. Getting deep in a lot of stuff though which is always a good sign. I just seem to be capped at like $3000 as the most I am allowed to win in 1 tournament. That being said, one big score erases everything so tomorrow is a new day.
Full Tilt Poker Game #5390982166: The Sunday Mulligan (40170210), Table 32 - 4000/8000 Ante 1000 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:41:22 ET - 2008/02/25
Seat 1: WPThero (218,398)
Seat 3: acumen53 (215,287)
Seat 4: noli me tangere (328,468)
Seat 6: Arda99 (291,225)
Seat 9: mjj864579 (755,732)
WPThero antes 1,000
acumen53 antes 1,000
noli me tangere antes 1,000
Arda99 antes 1,000
mjj864579 antes 1,000
noli me tangere posts the small blind of 4,000
Arda99 posts the big blind of 8,000
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to WPThero 
mjj864579 folds
WPThero raises to 21,225
acumen53 folds
noli me tangere folds
Arda99 calls 13,225
*** FLOP *** 
Arda99 checks
WPThero bets 33,250
Arda99 has 15 seconds left to act
Arda99 has requested TIME
Arda99 raises to 128,000
WPThero raises to 196,173, and is all in
Arda99 calls 68,173
WPThero shows
Arda99 shows 
*** TURN *** 
*** RIVER *** 
WPThero shows two pair, Queens and Tens
Arda99 shows two pair, Queens and Tens
Arda99 wins the pot (443,796) with two pair, Queens and Tens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 443,796 | Rake 0
Board:
Seat 1: WPThero showed and lost with two pair, Queens and Tens
Seat 3: acumen53 (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: noli me tangere (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: Arda99 (big blind) showed and won (443,796) with two pair, Queens and Tens
Seat 9: mjj864579 folded before the Flop
More of the same
3 FTs tonight, nothing huge but a 6th, 3rd, and 6th. Had a 3:1 CL coming into the FT and lost I think 4-5 flips in a row, also ran mid pairs into small stacks shoves 3 times when they had 8 BBs and woke up with JJ+. Really frustrating.
Gahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Another deep run in the Stars $100k and I cant win the big hands late, this is getting ridiculously aggravating . 15 more tournies tonight and lost a decent chunk of change, although I was into the $100r which I never play for $1609. I realized why I never play the $100r's generally. The worst thing is the last 3 weeks I have played the $100k 5 times and have a 32nd, 54th, 63rd and 52nd. Out in all of them on huge hands where if I win I got a legit shot at making some serious money. I guess I could see this as encouraging but I have just been playing too long and understand variance too much to know that you have to make the most of deep runs to stay afloat in MTTs. Its getting really frustrating, thats all I can say. The $1k finish where I chopped the big AK = AJ hand and all these hands are getting to me, not to mention I lost some crucial hands deep in the million and ftops me this weekend. I don't believe, nor should anyone else, that anyone runs statistically better then someone else, its just the spots where you come from behind that matter and I am coming up on the wrong side of the big hands I need to win late in tournies to actually profit. Punting a combined $3500 in SNG sats to the $1k last night and the $100r tonight surely doesn't help either.
That being said, my tournament tracking software is actually in a workable build right now and I am testing it before I release it. Will likely throw in a quick preview in my next live video.
In short,
Bright Side: I am getting deep a lot lately
Dark Side: I am losing the crucial hands in the end game
2nd Bright Side: Barack Obama, of whom I am an aggressive supporter, came up with another landslide victory in Wisconsin tonight. He is slowly looking like a lock to beat Hillary which is a good sign.
~Justin
Interesting night; Taking it old school!
So tonight I got back to my roots, grinding a ton of MTTs and putting in a nice long session. I read a blog that Paul Wasika made the other day just about how some of us, who have things come naturally to us without working very hard at them, can easily become lazy and unmotivated and I think that I have become that way for the most part. I won a decent amount at the WSOP this year and got back as an unmotivated online player. I have basically not been grinding out smaller tournaments to reduce the variance of playing the bigger buyins and just been slowly leaking money and not winning enough back in general to keep the ship afloat. So I am going to attempt to make a concerted effort to get back to grinding some smaller 200-300 man field MTT's with buyins as low as $25 or so to combat the huge variance in the bigger buyins. I really feel like I am playing super well lately and should break through with a big score. Tonight was a good sign none the less.
Started the night by playing 8 $280 SNGs for the FTP $1k and didnt win a seat, but got 2 3rds which got me $265 each which means I started the night down $1710
Then I bought into:
$1k Monday -$1060, placed 314th
50/50 on each site, -$110
Stars $100k ($162), got 63rd for $351.54, $189.54 profit
Stars $22r, in for 4 r+a which totals at $102, got 17th for $409.20, $307.2 profit
Stars $55 6max, 10th for $207, $152 profit
Both Big Doubles, $75 each, 2nd in B for $2484.90, $2334.90 profit
$109 6max, bubbled
$109 FO on Stars
$33 FO on Stars
Total for the night: -$147.36
So I cashed 4/11 tonight and still lost money but there is a mildly important lesson hidden here. I basically ran like dog crap in the $280 sngs and dug myself a big hole for the night, but by grinding out some smaller tournies I basically neutralized the losses for the night. Now will this always happen? No way! But will I always be into a $1k for $2770? I sure hope not! The lesson here is that while it might not be the sexiest thing to do to play a 184man $55 6max if you place well in it you can offset losses in some of the bigger events you play. This holds true for all buyin levels. If you are a regular in $25s then mix in some smaller $5-$10 tournaments to offset buyins for the $25s. They might not offer as much for 1st as your normal tournaments stops but they will help you survive the war on variance that are MTTs. Day off tomorrow and back to grind on Wednesday night.
~Justin
Totally non poker accomplishment: Perfect Game in Wii Bowling!
So for the past 5 days I have been pretty much addicted to Wii Sports, mainly the Bowling game and held a high score of 256 (highest is 300, 12 strikes in a row). After playing for like around two days I began a "Pursuit of Perfection" much like that of my beloved New England Patriots. However, unlike their story, this one didn't include a villain named Eli and Plaxico and 3 days and probably 30-40 strings after my pursuit began I can gleefully say I have accomplished my meaningless goal, perfection, dreams do come true!
So close to something really special
So tonight had the chance to become really special. I found myself at the FT of the 22r and the $1000 freezeout on Stars at the same time with decent stacks. I ended up in 8th in the 22r when my QQ < AK, standard flip, no biggie. Then this series of events happens in the $1k.
1st was 78k
2nd was 53k
3rd was 36k
4th was 28k
5th was 21k
PokerStars Game #15093859986: Tournament #76057959, $1000+$50 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (2000/4000) - 2008/02/06 - 02:22:02 (ET)
Table '76057959 5' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: SlippyJacks (211224 in chips)
Seat 3: Greenstone25 (147030 in chips)
Seat 6: WPThero (151616 in chips)
Seat 7: MIB727 (101073 in chips)
Seat 8: The Omaholic (354915 in chips)
Seat 9: RonaldKosh (99142 in chips)
SlippyJacks: posts the ante 400
Greenstone25: posts the ante 400
WPThero: posts the ante 400
MIB727: posts the ante 400
The Omaholic: posts the ante 400
RonaldKosh: posts the ante 400
The Omaholic: posts small blind 2000
RonaldKosh: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to WPThero [Ac Kc]
SlippyJacks: folds
Greenstone25: folds
WPThero: raises 7000 to 11000
MIB727: folds
The Omaholic: raises 21000 to 32000
RonaldKosh: folds
WPThero: raises 119216 to 151216 and is all-in
The Omaholic: calls 119216
The Omaholic said, "nh"
*** FLOP *** [Js 6d 4s]
*** TURN *** [Js 6d 4s] [6c]
*** RIVER *** [Js 6d 4s 6c] [Jc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
The Omaholic: shows [As Ts] (two pair, Jacks and Sixes)
WPThero: shows [Ac Kc] (two pair, Jacks and Sixes)
The Omaholic collected 154416 from pot
WPThero collected 154416 from pot
The Omaholic said, "atlldoo"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 308832 | Rake 0
Board [Js 6d 4s 6c Jc]
Seat 1: SlippyJacks folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Greenstone25 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: WPThero showed [Ac Kc] and won (154416) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
Seat 7: MIB727 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: The Omaholic (small blind) showed [As Ts] and won (154416) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes
Seat 9: RonaldKosh (big blind) folded before Flop
**This is by far one of the worst calls I have seen deep in a big tournament in a very very long time. It is frankly, indefensible. I NEVER shove light here, at the very best he is flipping against 99. I mean, this is for a crap ton of equity and he calls off with ATs. I truly have no idea what he is doing here, but it worked out I guess**
PokerStars Game #15093982739: Tournament #76057959, $1000+$50 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (3000/6000) - 2008/02/06 - 02:34:44 (ET)
Table '76057959 5' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: SlippyJacks (254541 in chips)
Seat 3: Greenstone25 (144030 in chips)
Seat 6: WPThero (160816 in chips)
Seat 7: MIB727 (72873 in chips)
Seat 8: The Omaholic (432740 in chips)
SlippyJacks: posts the ante 600
Greenstone25: posts the ante 600
WPThero: posts the ante 600
MIB727: posts the ante 600
The Omaholic: posts the ante 600
SlippyJacks: posts small blind 3000
Greenstone25: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to WPThero [Qh Kd]
WPThero: raises 10250 to 16250
MIB727: raises 56023 to 72273 and is all-in
The Omaholic: folds
SlippyJacks: folds
Greenstone25: folds
WPThero: calls 56023
*** FLOP *** [2d 7h 5h]
*** TURN *** [2d 7h 5h] [6h]
*** RIVER *** [2d 7h 5h 6h] [6s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
WPThero: shows [Qh Kd] (a pair of Sixes)
MIB727: shows [Ad 3d] (a pair of Sixes - Ace kicker)
MIB727 collected 156546 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 156546 | Rake 0
Board [2d 7h 5h 6h 6s]
Seat 1: SlippyJacks (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Greenstone25 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: WPThero showed [Qh Kd] and lost with a pair of Sixes
Seat 7: MIB727 showed [Ad 3d] and won (156546) with a pair of Sixes
Seat 8: The Omaholic (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
**Pretty standard hand here, its basically a flip vs. his range. I lose this one and lose the $7k gained from knocking him out, not to mention the added equity from the chips. I was contemplating a fold here, but getting 2:1 vs his range is just too much**
PokerStars Game #15094003882: Tournament #76057959, $1000+$50 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (3000/6000) - 2008/02/06 - 02:37:01 (ET)
Table '76057959 5' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: SlippyJacks (261741 in chips)
Seat 3: Greenstone25 (133230 in chips)
Seat 6: WPThero (77743 in chips)
Seat 7: MIB727 (161346 in chips)
Seat 8: The Omaholic (430940 in chips)
SlippyJacks: posts the ante 600
Greenstone25: posts the ante 600
WPThero: posts the ante 600
MIB727: posts the ante 600
The Omaholic: posts the ante 600
MIB727: posts small blind 3000
The Omaholic: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to WPThero [9d Jd]
SlippyJacks: folds
Greenstone25: folds
WPThero: raises 71143 to 77143 and is all-in
MIB727: folds
The Omaholic: calls 71143
*** FLOP *** [Ah Ac Th]
*** TURN *** [Ah Ac Th] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [Ah Ac Th Jc] [2h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
The Omaholic: shows [2s 2d] (a full house, Deuces full of Aces)
WPThero: shows [9d Jd] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
The Omaholic collected 160286 from pot
The Omaholic said, "oopz"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 160286 | Rake 0
Board [Ah Ac Th Jc 2h]
Seat 1: SlippyJacks folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Greenstone25 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: WPThero (button) showed [9d Jd] and lost with two pair, Aces and Jacks
Seat 7: MIB727 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: The Omaholic (big blind) showed [2s 2d] and won (160286) with a full house, Deuces full of Aces
**Another pretty bad call in my opinion. He is now at best flipping for 13bb's. I don't know if it is really worth it, I guess if you had run like he had been the idea that you can't lose leads to this call. Its probably neutral EV long term so whatever, but a nice tease on the turn for me**
So basically I get 21k and on a normal day that would be swell, but the way it went down I can't help but feel like crap about the finish. I know its a lot of money and a very nice score, but it still just irks me to lose like I did.
~Justin
Sigh
So the perfect season ended last night for the Patriots. Between that and my downswing I am teetering on full blown depression. If Barack Obama gets blown out in the primaries tomorrow I will need to go on Paxil or something similar. Now I have to be a fellow pro with Ansky (a Giants fan and NY'er) which makes things even worse. I plan on playing tonight and hopefully making a vid or two and then answering some forums questions that I havent gotten to yet. In the mean time I will be crying at my desk wondering how an 18-1 record can feel so hollow..... 15 days till Red Sox spring training.
