Ship it!
Won another 12k WPT sat tonight, that makes 2 in a few months along with a PCA win. For some reason I do well in winner take all formats, likely because I always play like it is WTA (to a fault sometimes). In addition to that my friend ZBThorton took down the FTP $1k tonight for $87k and through a few circumstances won me a big PS3 bundle. So double ship it. I've been feeling pretty good overall about my game lately and did a video today with 4 tables in the early stages of tournies, made a few errors here and there but overall I think it is decent. Will be out this week I'm sure.
In other non poker stuff I am getting ready to close on my new condo in mid December and hopefully get the new floors and kitchen in within a week or so after that so I can move in before I take off for the PCA. I leave for that on 1/4 to the 11th and then plan on grinding again live for a bit. There are a lot of series coming up on sites including one on UB and I assume another FTOPS in Jan or Feb. I also might be going to play in some events for the LAPC and get a house for a few weeks with a few friends and then maybe take off to Hawaii, I'm not 100% on this but the idea is being floated around. Then in the spring Foxwoods has another tournament series coming up with a 10k main event. So I should be busy. I am determined to win a big live tournament soon so I am going to take as many shots as I can. Its really amazing when I think back to where I was only 1 year ago to where I am now, I really feel as though I am playing a lot better and growing every day. Thats the thing about doing this site, I have learned as much as you guys have I'm sure. Poker is amazing really because you never stop learning, as long as you have the drive. I will be playing a 2k at Foxwoods in mid December as a tune up for PCA too and I'll try to keep everyone updates. This is a bit of a ramble but its 4am so give me a break! Talk to you soon guys.
Poker Trends (11/16 – 11/23)
This week marked a not so surprising drop in field sizes post-FTOPS. The 30 tracked tournaments we down a total of 6.48% this week. I fully expect an upward trend to take back over again this week as from looking at past FTOPS the biggest drop seems to come right after, as people take breaks and what not. The PFI (look at last post for explanation) is up 0.54% from last week, however, I expect this to be skewed for a few weeks due to FTOPS numbers. I have included another stat this week which ignores FTOPS weeks and the PFI is even higher without the noise created from the series which further solidifies that even amidst some bad news tournament fields are still growing! I think the growth encapsulates a few things, including 1 site particular (Stars) really beginning to hone their satellite system as of late. Its my belief that they have recognized the world economic position better then any other room and have prepared better for a possibly hard year economically in 2009. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the other rooms begin a downward trend if certain measures aren't taken to keep fish alive longer.
In the end, although 24 of the 30 MTT's tracked weekly are down from last week I think we should be positive that with the new rules passed by the government we don't see anything out of the normal post FTOPS jumps.
http://www.jurollo.net/pokertrends1123.jpg
Poker Field Trends (Week 2 of Tracking)
Hey guys,
I've started tracking poker field sizes in 28 key high buyin tournaments and have created a system for tracking them. As my data gets more inclusive I plan on adding new stats, and formulas. Right now, the most important statistic I am offering is the change in field sizes between the 5 week moving average and the 10 week moving average (denoted as 10/5 Chg) as well as the first 5/last 5 chg (denoted as F5/L5 Chg) which averages weeks 1-5 and weeks 6-10 and finds the growth trend. Finally, as you see at the bottom is the Poker Field Index, this denotes the overall field trend for these 28 tournaments based on their moving averages. I will be updating this every week and possibly adding more tournaments to track. Right now I am focusing on high buyin tournaments as the satellites to them help to track low buyins in the same breath.
Inside the Numbers
This week we saw the FTOPS come to a close so I am anticipating a lot of contraction in the field sizes this week, especially on FTP, as the FTOPS is known to bloat their field sizes. I will be interested to see how this effects the other sites as well. The PFI stands at a 2.36% growth this week. So from all indications, fields are still growing.
Graph isnt showing correctly on cardplayer so use this link:
http://www.pokersavvyplus.com/downloads/pokertrends1117.jpg
Randomness / Over The Line Chat
Hey all,
I've had a mildly eventful couple of days so I thought I'd make an entry in here. First off, I've been sick as a dog again for the past week. I dont know whats wrong with my immune system lately but its getting really really old. I've been sick so much lately since I got over mono. Unfortunately my latest symptoms look a lot like a relapse of mono so I'm hopeful that this isnt the case as that would pretty much suck.
In addition to feeling like crap for the past week yesterday before losing in every tournament I played was spent trudging the swampy woods behind my parents house looking for my dogs as they took off out a gate that opened up. Found the younger of the two pretty quick, but my oldest dog who has some leg issues was still AWOL. Ended up running through a river and what not before my parents eventually found her running down the end of our road, about 1 mile away towards our house.
Lastly and most importantly, my time back at my parents will be over December 15th since I finally am closing on a condo in Boston. I started on the other end of the gambit thinking about buying a multi-family unit but ended up being a 2BR condo 0.2mi from Fenway Park. Its a pretty amazing location so I'm excited to get back to the city, I have been gone way too long, not to mention living in my childhood hometown for the first time since I was 21 wasnt the most exciting time I've ever had, although it did have its perks. I'll be glad to get my own place up and running again though after my renovations are done.
On the poker front, I had a terrible Sunday which is being followed up by a terrible Monday, but those are the breaks when you play donkaments for a living. I'm still grinding the Stars $50/$70k so we'll see if I can salvage the night with a top 3 there.
The last thing I wanted to address was something that happened tonight, which is sadly too big a part of online poker, people going way over the line of good taste because its online and its easy to be an a-hole when you don't have to be in front of people.
xxxxxxx [observer]: to the ovens with you jew-rollo
In my opinion this is WAY WAY over the line and these kind of things should be punished. I really encourage you guys that read this to never berate people, even if its a poker related line of attack, let your playing do the talk. If you really like to get under people's skin then a little good hearted trash talk is fine, its part of the game, but I really encourage you guys to remember at all times that while there are just avatars and screennames on your screen while playing there are people behind each one of them. If you see someone else going over the line report them to support, its not right and if that doesn't tug at your morality then its also -EV. The less fun people have when playing the less likely a recreational player will play, period.
Bad Day —> Decent Day
Had an absolutely abysmal start to my day tonight and was into the Stars 100r for a crap ton and then got bad beat a few times during the rebuy period of $300r FTOPS. I ended up building a stack in that though before eventually bubbling in a pot for a top 15 stack with 140 left. QQ < 76ss on a Qx6ss board. Allin on the flop, instabinked the spade on the turn. I salvaged the day though with a win in the Stars $100 freezeout at 19:00. We were ridiculously deep 3 handed and I think I played really well from 18 left and I might do a video just from that point tomorrow, we were about 110BB's each to start HU. Talk to you soon.
GL Matusow (FT of WPT Foxwoods)
Mike is 1/10 going to the FT of the WPT 10k @ Foxwoods. 1st is $1.1m! David Pham and Jon Little (FieryJustice on 2p2) are both at the FT as well. GL all.
Foxwoods 10k, trip report
Foxwoods 10k trip report.
Out. What a terrible day at a terrible place. Woke up at noon in MGM (which is awesome compared to the shit hole that is everywhere else in Foxwoods) and got to my table like 40 minutes late. On a side note, every time I come here I get a little lost finding the Sunset Ballroom, mainly because if you end up going one way you are never allowed to loop around. Anyhoo, to poker.
Started the day with a few hands here and there and a seemingly soft table. Seat 2 looked was a solid younger kid, seat 3 seemed solid as well seat 7 was a crazy lag asian and seat 9 was a standard tag. Lots of limping and bullshit, the usual for live donkaments. Anyway, I chip up to around 34k pretty quick and run into my first big hand.
50/100 blinds
Raise 6h5h in MP behind a limp to t400, crazy asian calls OTB (obv), and limper calls. Flop Th4s3h (SHIP IT!) Limper checks, I bet t800, crazy asian makes it like t1800 (maybe t1900), limper folds and I 4bet to t4775. I can obviously call there, but this guy is crazy and don't want to face a shit turn card OOP when he will fire like 100%. So he doesn't even really think and 5bet ships for like 14k more. SHIT! Anyway, no way I can't call there and the only hands I am terrified of at Ah4h or like AhQh or something. I call. The bastard has KcTd. WHAT?!?!?! 5bet 160BB's with KTo, wow, 15 outs twice ship it! Oh wait Qc turn, some blank river. Sweet. Down to 17k.
Hand 2:
100/200 blinds
I have 15k after losing a few smallish pots and raise AKcc UTG+1, however, I am an idiot and think it is still 50/100 for a second and throw 300 out there which obviously turns into a minbet of t400. Nice work Justin! MP calls, BB calls. Flop A65hh, WEEE! BB checks, I bet out t1000, MP folds, BB calls. Ok, maybe a str8 or flush draw, cmon brick. Turn is a Jc. He checks I fire t2400, he calls. Hmmmm... turn is a blank, he checks, I check behind thinking I don't get value out of anything except like a sheepishly played AT and he flips A6 for 2 pair. AWDEWFREFVERDCWEDWEF! Down to 11k.
Hand 3:
100/200/25
Crazy asian limps UTG+1, 3 others come along, the sb calls and I am in the bb with Q5o. My option is to obviously check, I have Q5! Flop Q54cc. I Start the money dance in my head. SB checks, I check, crasian makes it 400 (nice bet sir!), CO calls, BTN calls, I make it t2000. Crasian quickly calls, other 2 fold. Turn 6s. Hmmm. I have t8500 left. Pot is t7025, I ship in for t8500ish (maybe t200) left. He tanks for a minute or so then says "call" and slams down K2cc!!!!! Like really slams that shit on the table and jumps out of his chair. I calmly flip over Q5 and the river... 8c! Hey Justin, Go F Yourself! I get up and leave, good times. Screw Foxwoods (aside from the new MGM which is awesome).
On another side note, with every night I spend in a hotel I begin to more fully realize that I have an addiction to room service. I have ordered so much god damn unneeded food in 4 days here for ridiculous prices it makes me sick thinking about it. Off to Boston tomorrow for the Celtics game then home for the weekend. I have a video coming out soon which will be pretty f'ing awesome, its the final 2 hours or so of the Stars 100k I got 2nd in. On the FT bubble I literally raised about 90% of hands for about 20mins, it was good stuff, just need to add audio and it will be up.
OBAMA!
This wont be long but YESSSS! I can't believe Obama actually won, the last few weeks it looked certain but I always had a feeling that something might go wrong and a fear that America wasn't ready, however tonight was an affirmation to me that this country has progressed further then I thought it had and restored some of my faith in it. Its been an emotional night, I have been a mixture of elated, proud, exhausted, nervous, and reflective. Its been a long battle for millions of people and I am just thrilled that it finally happened. Sitting at Foxwoods now and will play Day 1B of the Foxwoods 10k after I spend tomorrow driving around gobbling up some newspapers to frame. Talk to you all soon.
Election / Foxwoods
I am off to Foxwoods tomorrow for their $10k event on Weds or Thurs (depending which Day 1 I want). I will check in with some updates from there, I am currently going to be watching the election tomorrow with some 2p2'ers and hopefully celebrating an Obama romp.
I wrote this for my other non-poker blog a few days ago about the election....
So the election is coming up real fast. Part of me doesn't want the coverage to ever end as I have been enjoying following this year's election since the primaries began. My horse in the whole thing has been Obama so I am happy that he has such a commanding lead in all the polls over McCain. If not for his policies, which I generally align with, I think electing a black man named Barack Obama says a lot about the US at home and abroad. Our image has been so tainted abroad by "cowboy politics" as the pundits put it, that a complete 180 degree turn in policy can do nothing but help us garner more respect around the world. It is, however, increasingly saddening how often I have heard race being brought up in a negative light during Barack's run to the White House. There is a lot of hate still in this country purely based on the color of someone's skin. To disagree with someone based on their policies is a completely viable reason to align yourself for McCain, however, it does seem plausible that a relatively meaningful portion of the support on the right is coming because of the opposition's skin color and not because of their horse's ideological stance. All that being said, this year is a perfect storm in America this year for something historic to happen, the current President is hated like no other, the economy is failing, we are in an unpopular war and the Democratic candidate is charismatic, relatable, and extremely intelligent. I do have a small fear that something may go awry on Election Day in which case I am even more fearful as to what will happen across this country if it is seen as a "stolen election." We will hopefully never find out.
For those stat geeks out there that haven't heard about the brilliant site created by Nate Silver, check out http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/, it has ridiculously detailed polling and projections on the election and has been a pleasure to watch the entire season.