Funds from my AP account magically gone
So just as a heads up to everyone else. I attempted to make a $6,000 transfer on AP right before they moved to Cereus. I am certain of this. However, after a couple weeks now I went to check in on it and there is no record of the request or the transfer and the other player didnt get it. So I thought I must have just somehow forgot or dreamed it, even though I definitely remember doing it. So then I audited my account and $5,040 is completely gone from my account with no record. I talked to security on the phone the other day and they said there is no record of everything and I tried to explain to them to just audit my account and they will see $5,000 is missing. But they kept asking me if I wanted a hand history. I finally emailed security and havent gotten a response yet.
I also checked to see if anyone had played cash and dumped money to someone else and there is no record of that. So basically no record of anything and over $5,000 gone. For those of you with money on there I would double check your balances and make sure everything is what it should be and maybe think about moving your money to other, more reputable sites. Will keep you updated as this will go into full on attack mode if I don't get the money or an explanation of where it went. (I leave the 1% possibility that this is somehow an accounting error on my part, however, I really doubt that)
~J
Back in Business!
Looks like cable and internet will be back on for good as of tonight. Was actually a good break from poker during this winter madness, had some good time out with my friends and family as well as finally closing on my condo. PCA is coming up and after that I am planning on playing a lot of live events in 2009, likely LAPC and maybe Bay 101. Going to formulate a pretty lengthy list soon. Going to try to record tonight as I'll be playing the $1k and some other stuff. Talk soon.
Out of Touch (MA is a friggin’ war zone)
Hey guys,
I am just getting online after being down for 4 days and likely will not be 100% back up for a few more. I am running off my phone which I tethered to my computer so its pretty slow but I can do the needed things. I wont be able to answer PMs or Forum posts for a few days so you'll have to wait it out a few days. Half of my county looks like a tornado went through it, amazing what an ice storm can do.
Poker Tournament Trends (12/1 – 12/7)
Hello All. For the past 4 weeks I have been tracking field sizes in 30 big tournaments spread out between the biggest 4 online sites, Poker Stars, Full Tilt Poker, Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet. This week is the beginning of a new model I will be using from here on out though so the numbers do not correlate to the past 3 weeks. Please keep this in mind when looking at this weeks numbers.
All the moving averages are now adjusted moving averages. By this I mean that the largest and smallest number in the samples have been taken out. This is all the case in the PFI and SPFI totals for all 30 tournaments as well. This will help take out the effect of promos in the numbers. The Week to Week figure has also been tweaked. The biggest change this week is out PFI figures now, which shows us the general trend of each tournament in relation to its 10 or 5 week moving averages. This figure is now calculated using a weighting system which counts more recent tournaments heavier then less recent ones. This should make this figure much more accurate. Now onto the numbers for this week.
Full Tilt seems to have bounced back from a bad two weeks and is up 4.16% on the week with Wednesday 65k bouncing back from its very low week last week with a 22% growth after the Thanksgiving low. The other interesting note from the week is that we have seen the bubble burst for the newly formed Cereus network in their 3 majors during the week. The 200k contracted sharply this week back to 889 players which leads me to believe last week's figure of over 1000 players may have been achieved using promotional entries to players through email. I will be interested to see if this tournament stays at its old levels. The weekend brought some a bad finish as almost every tournament on Sunday contracted from last week's numbers. Most of these figures on Sunday are within a few standard deviations of the mean so we will have to see how the next few weeks pan out for any meaningful trends to emerge.
Finally, as you can see in the chart we have 4 tournaments that we have classified as trending down over our samples. The Stars Early 100r, Stars $500, Stars $215r and the Cereus $1k. These seem like fairly reasonable tournaments that would contract first under hard economic conditions like the ones we are facing world wide at the moment. Will this downward trend mean that others will follow or is this simply a small dip in these relatively high buyin tournament? Only time will tell, for now the news is most definately not bad as our first sitewide PFI number under the new model has come in at +1.47% growth. For definitions of each stat in the chart please read below.
http://www.jurollo.net/pokertrends1207.jpg
Last - Field size from last data entry
Chg - Change between current week's field size and last week's field size as a number
Chg % - Change between current week's field size and last week's field size as a percentage
10AMov - 10 Week adjusted moving average; adjusts to the current average for last 12 occassions of selected tournament minus the high and low value of the set
Chg % - Change between the current week's data and the 10 week moving average as a percentage
5AMov - 5 Week adjusted moving average; adjusts to the current average for last 7 occassions of selected tournament minus the high and low value of the set
Chg % - Change between the current week's data and the 5 week moving average as a percentage
10/5 Chg - Change between the 5 week moving average and the 10 week moving average as a percentage
F5/L5 Chg - Change between the last 5 occassions of a selected tournament and the 6th through 10th occurrences as a percentage
PFI® - Poker Field Index® value measures weighted growth from the past 10 weeks of data, the higher the figure the steeper the growth, more recent tournaments are weighted more heavily
STPFI® - Short Term Poker Field Index® value measures weighted growth from the past 5 weeks of data, the higher the figure the steeper the growth, more recent tournaments are weighted more heavily, more effected by short term jumps due to promotions
Poker Tournament Trends (11/24 – 11/30)
Sort of an interesting week this week. We have 19 of our 30 tournaments that are tracked down from last week's numbers, however, most of those took place around the US Thanksgiving holiday. Next week will be a good measure of where we are at overall. This week also marked the first week of a combined AP/UB server which saw a huge increase in the 200k which offered no overlay. I am unsure of how I will go on with tracking these two but will likely keep them as they currently are tracked.
When looking at our 5 week and 10 week splits we have 5 of our 30 tournaments showing a downward field size trend over our sample. 2 of which are high limit rebuys and 2 of which are Freezeouts on Fridays. I believe the rebuys show how important satellites are to MTTs, as they are 2 of the tracked tournaments which do not rely on sats. The final tournament showing a downward trend is the FTP $750k. I am not quite sure the reason why this has been consistently showing field contraction but it is strange as other MTTs on FTP are showing growth as is the Sunday Million on Poker Stars. My guess is that it is either the satellite system needs tweaking or the effects of the site going from a must play 1st seat system in sats to a T$ system are still being felt in the system.
The PFI has increased to 3.02%, showing growth once again this week, this is a 5 week lagging indicator though so I expect it to top out in 3 weeks. Also I have included a new stat called SPFI which will track where field sizes are this week in relation to their 5 week moving averages. As we see here in yet another stat, the online tournament world had a down week.
On a final bright note, even in our 2nd week in a row of contraction, 16 of the 30 tracked tournaments beat their 10 week moving average this week.
http://www.jurollo.net/pokertrends1130.jpg