WPThero Just another PokerSavvy weblog

A VERY strange end to the $1k on FTP ( 2 updates, got the extra $$$)

I got HU in the FTP 1k today and after a crucial hand amassed a 10-1 chiplead when the FTP server decided to crash on me. The villain then stole all the way up to 1.2m and they paused it. I am hopeful that I get the equity I deserve and have sent this email to FTP. Do the right thing one time please FTP!!!

My email
Hello,
I got disconnected after hand #10146459559 in the Monday 1k. After this hand I held a chiplead of approximately 1.6million. The stacks were as follows:

WPThero: 1,885,472
Martand: 174,528

You will see in the HH that he began to quickly steal my blinds after I was disconnected. In full disclosure I attempted to have two friends login to see if they could connect. Usernames for them are xxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxx. I feel as though the proper remedy for this result would be an equity chop from the point I disconnected. This chop would result in the following payouts:

WPThero: $99,683.97
Martand: $67,176.03

If this is not acceptable I suggest that possibly we reset stacks to that listed above and replay the tournament from there. I would be more then happy to do so. If this were an isolated incident where I was disconnected due to ISP problems then I would not be writing this letter. However, it is quite obvious, from the emailed tagged KMM10022384I15977L0KM and the following 2p2 thread:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/61...llo-1k-392673/

You can see I posted in this thread during the DC. Also, you can see that people are saying that he was stealing obviously from me. Your help in this matter would be greatly appreciated and I believe that both alternatives I have laid out are reasonable.
~Justin Rollo

--------------------------

UPDATE: They credited me with 77k when it was voided or about 35% of the equity when I had 91% of the chips at DC. I am hopeful that they do the right thing and fix this since it is fairly obvious what happened and when.

UPDATE 2: FTP kicked in the extra $21k and gave me my equity at disconnect. I will likely post about this more in detail later

This is how you bubble an LAPC seat

This donk ran white hot in every spot at the FT except the one time he could have won me a seat. Beat my KQ on a QJ5 board when he donkshoved TT. Then lost ATs < JJ 3 handed where if he binked I would have won the seat and then this to screw me.

Full Tilt Poker Game #10067211705: WPT - LAPC Qualifier (75958300), Table 1 - 600/1200 Ante 150 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:43:32 ET - 2009/01/16
Seat 2: WPThero (38,336)
Seat 3: sprstoner (89,658)
Seat 5: DrMGrPoker (52,006)
WPThero antes 150
sprstoner antes 150
DrMGrPoker antes 150
sprstoner posts the small blind of 600
DrMGrPoker posts the big blind of 1,200
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to WPThero [Th Td]
WPThero raises to 3,600
sprstoner folds
DrMGrPoker raises to 11,850
WPThero raises to 38,186, and is all in
DrMGrPoker calls 26,336
WPThero shows [Th Td]
DrMGrPoker shows [3h Ad]
*** FLOP *** [Ks As 7s]
*** TURN *** [Ks As 7s] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [Ks As 7s 3d] [8c]
WPThero shows a pair of Tens
DrMGrPoker shows two pair, Aces and Threes
DrMGrPoker wins the pot (77,422) with two pair, Aces and Threes
WPThero stands up
sprstoner stands up
DrMGrPoker stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 77,422 | Rake 0
Board: [Ks As 7s 3d 8c]
Seat 2: WPThero (button) showed [Th Td] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 3: sprstoner (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: DrMGrPoker (big blind) showed [3h Ad] and won (77,422) with two pair, Aces and Threes

End of Day 2 of the PCA

I am sitting at 352k at the end of day 2 which should be middle of the pack heading into 3000/6000. I have not once, but twice been allin on the turn with a gutshot in this tournament and not once but twice hit my gutter both times. The 2nd being slightly embarrassing because I misread the board and after my shove was called announced that I had outs in the form of a double gutter. Shaniac was kind enough to point out that I was a retard and had a gutter but I binked anyway, ohhhh donkaments. I feel pretty good going into tomorrow, should be interesting to say the least. Will talk tomorrow guys.

Edit: I'd like to point out, that in both gutters I was shipping in on someone with significant fold equity. So I'm not a total donk.

Funds from my AP account magically gone

So just as a heads up to everyone else. I attempted to make a $6,000 transfer on AP right before they moved to Cereus. I am certain of this. However, after a couple weeks now I went to check in on it and there is no record of the request or the transfer and the other player didnt get it. So I thought I must have just somehow forgot or dreamed it, even though I definitely remember doing it. So then I audited my account and $5,040 is completely gone from my account with no record. I talked to security on the phone the other day and they said there is no record of everything and I tried to explain to them to just audit my account and they will see $5,000 is missing. But they kept asking me if I wanted a hand history. I finally emailed security and havent gotten a response yet.

I also checked to see if anyone had played cash and dumped money to someone else and there is no record of that. So basically no record of anything and over $5,000 gone. For those of you with money on there I would double check your balances and make sure everything is what it should be and maybe think about moving your money to other, more reputable sites. Will keep you updated as this will go into full on attack mode if I don't get the money or an explanation of where it went. (I leave the 1% possibility that this is somehow an accounting error on my part, however, I really doubt that)
~J

Back in Business!

Looks like cable and internet will be back on for good as of tonight. Was actually a good break from poker during this winter madness, had some good time out with my friends and family as well as finally closing on my condo. PCA is coming up and after that I am planning on playing a lot of live events in 2009, likely LAPC and maybe Bay 101. Going to formulate a pretty lengthy list soon. Going to try to record tonight as I'll be playing the $1k and some other stuff. Talk soon.

Out of Touch (MA is a friggin’ war zone)

Hey guys,
I am just getting online after being down for 4 days and likely will not be 100% back up for a few more. I am running off my phone which I tethered to my computer so its pretty slow but I can do the needed things. I wont be able to answer PMs or Forum posts for a few days so you'll have to wait it out a few days. Half of my county looks like a tornado went through it, amazing what an ice storm can do.

Poker Tournament Trends (12/1 – 12/7)

Hello All. For the past 4 weeks I have been tracking field sizes in 30 big tournaments spread out between the biggest 4 online sites, Poker Stars, Full Tilt Poker, Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet. This week is the beginning of a new model I will be using from here on out though so the numbers do not correlate to the past 3 weeks. Please keep this in mind when looking at this weeks numbers.

All the moving averages are now adjusted moving averages. By this I mean that the largest and smallest number in the samples have been taken out. This is all the case in the PFI and SPFI totals for all 30 tournaments as well. This will help take out the effect of promos in the numbers. The Week to Week figure has also been tweaked. The biggest change this week is out PFI figures now, which shows us the general trend of each tournament in relation to its 10 or 5 week moving averages. This figure is now calculated using a weighting system which counts more recent tournaments heavier then less recent ones. This should make this figure much more accurate. Now onto the numbers for this week.

Full Tilt seems to have bounced back from a bad two weeks and is up 4.16% on the week with Wednesday 65k bouncing back from its very low week last week with a 22% growth after the Thanksgiving low. The other interesting note from the week is that we have seen the bubble burst for the newly formed Cereus network in their 3 majors during the week. The 200k contracted sharply this week back to 889 players which leads me to believe last week's figure of over 1000 players may have been achieved using promotional entries to players through email. I will be interested to see if this tournament stays at its old levels. The weekend brought some a bad finish as almost every tournament on Sunday contracted from last week's numbers. Most of these figures on Sunday are within a few standard deviations of the mean so we will have to see how the next few weeks pan out for any meaningful trends to emerge.

Finally, as you can see in the chart we have 4 tournaments that we have classified as trending down over our samples. The Stars Early 100r, Stars $500, Stars $215r and the Cereus $1k. These seem like fairly reasonable tournaments that would contract first under hard economic conditions like the ones we are facing world wide at the moment. Will this downward trend mean that others will follow or is this simply a small dip in these relatively high buyin tournament? Only time will tell, for now the news is most definately not bad as our first sitewide PFI number under the new model has come in at +1.47% growth. For definitions of each stat in the chart please read below.

http://www.jurollo.net/pokertrends1207.jpg

Last - Field size from last data entry
Chg - Change between current week's field size and last week's field size as a number
Chg % - Change between current week's field size and last week's field size as a percentage
10AMov - 10 Week adjusted moving average; adjusts to the current average for last 12 occassions of selected tournament minus the high and low value of the set
Chg % - Change between the current week's data and the 10 week moving average as a percentage
5AMov - 5 Week adjusted moving average; adjusts to the current average for last 7 occassions of selected tournament minus the high and low value of the set
Chg % - Change between the current week's data and the 5 week moving average as a percentage
10/5 Chg - Change between the 5 week moving average and the 10 week moving average as a percentage
F5/L5 Chg - Change between the last 5 occassions of a selected tournament and the 6th through 10th occurrences as a percentage
PFI® - Poker Field Index® value measures weighted growth from the past 10 weeks of data, the higher the figure the steeper the growth, more recent tournaments are weighted more heavily
STPFI® - Short Term Poker Field Index® value measures weighted growth from the past 5 weeks of data, the higher the figure the steeper the growth, more recent tournaments are weighted more heavily, more effected by short term jumps due to promotions

Poker Tournament Trends (11/24 – 11/30)

Sort of an interesting week this week. We have 19 of our 30 tournaments that are tracked down from last week's numbers, however, most of those took place around the US Thanksgiving holiday. Next week will be a good measure of where we are at overall. This week also marked the first week of a combined AP/UB server which saw a huge increase in the 200k which offered no overlay. I am unsure of how I will go on with tracking these two but will likely keep them as they currently are tracked.

When looking at our 5 week and 10 week splits we have 5 of our 30 tournaments showing a downward field size trend over our sample. 2 of which are high limit rebuys and 2 of which are Freezeouts on Fridays. I believe the rebuys show how important satellites are to MTTs, as they are 2 of the tracked tournaments which do not rely on sats. The final tournament showing a downward trend is the FTP $750k. I am not quite sure the reason why this has been consistently showing field contraction but it is strange as other MTTs on FTP are showing growth as is the Sunday Million on Poker Stars. My guess is that it is either the satellite system needs tweaking or the effects of the site going from a must play 1st seat system in sats to a T$ system are still being felt in the system.

The PFI has increased to 3.02%, showing growth once again this week, this is a 5 week lagging indicator though so I expect it to top out in 3 weeks. Also I have included a new stat called SPFI which will track where field sizes are this week in relation to their 5 week moving averages. As we see here in yet another stat, the online tournament world had a down week.

On a final bright note, even in our 2nd week in a row of contraction, 16 of the 30 tracked tournaments beat their 10 week moving average this week.

http://www.jurollo.net/pokertrends1130.jpg

Ship it!

Won another 12k WPT sat tonight, that makes 2 in a few months along with a PCA win. For some reason I do well in winner take all formats, likely because I always play like it is WTA (to a fault sometimes). In addition to that my friend ZBThorton took down the FTP $1k tonight for $87k and through a few circumstances won me a big PS3 bundle. So double ship it. I've been feeling pretty good overall about my game lately and did a video today with 4 tables in the early stages of tournies, made a few errors here and there but overall I think it is decent. Will be out this week I'm sure.

In other non poker stuff I am getting ready to close on my new condo in mid December and hopefully get the new floors and kitchen in within a week or so after that so I can move in before I take off for the PCA. I leave for that on 1/4 to the 11th and then plan on grinding again live for a bit. There are a lot of series coming up on sites including one on UB and I assume another FTOPS in Jan or Feb. I also might be going to play in some events for the LAPC and get a house for a few weeks with a few friends and then maybe take off to Hawaii, I'm not 100% on this but the idea is being floated around. Then in the spring Foxwoods has another tournament series coming up with a 10k main event. So I should be busy. I am determined to win a big live tournament soon so I am going to take as many shots as I can. Its really amazing when I think back to where I was only 1 year ago to where I am now, I really feel as though I am playing a lot better and growing every day. Thats the thing about doing this site, I have learned as much as you guys have I'm sure. Poker is amazing really because you never stop learning, as long as you have the drive. I will be playing a 2k at Foxwoods in mid December as a tune up for PCA too and I'll try to keep everyone updates. This is a bit of a ramble but its 4am so give me a break! Talk to you soon guys.