Variance: Taming the Shrew

What exactly is variance?  By definition variance is, "A difference between what is expected and what actually occurs."

Ok so what does it mean to poker? You obviously aren't going to win everytime you are a favorite, very rarely in poker are you 100% to win a hand before the river, and if cards can come to beat you, eventually they will. In cash games donkeys can stack you, but with a quick reload, you are right back in action with a chance to win it back.  However, in tournament poker, that donkey is "hee-hawing" with your chips while you are walking to the rail possibly wasting about 6 hours of your time in the process.

Different kinds of variance?

I consider there to be two kinds of variance. Some people will argue this as it is essentially the same thing, but they have two distinctly different mental effects.

a) Early and mid game variance- I consider this to be the variance that people can handle. Players understand they can't win every hand and when they lose early they generally take it in stride. "It's part of the game" or "That's poker."

b) End game variance- This is the kind of variance that kills some players mentally and is the kind of variance that makes type A exponentially worse as well. A good example is battling for 6 hours, making the final table and losing to an 80/20. It is this variance that can create or extend a down swing.

How can MTT'ers Tame Variance?

There are many ways to tame variance as a tournament player. The first is obvious. Don't play strictly MTT's. Mixing in SNGs is a great way to practice push botting and bubble play and is a good low variance form of tournament poker to play as a side game. However, some people, including myself love MTTs more than anything so they want to play only MTTs and lower variance. Here are some tips:

a) Diversify your Structures- Different sites offer different structures. I dont just mean blind structures either. Payout structures differ too which can be helpful.  20% payouts are not long term +EV for good players, however, while you lose some +EV long term you gain some short term, mixing in some 20% payouts along side of normal 10% payouts can help you sustain buyins as you continue to play. Remember the biggest jump in ROI is from $0-ITM.  Also, blind structure differences force you to think. If you are constantly playing on one site and in a rut you become robotic. Changing scenery and structure can not only make you think more about your plays and the blinds effects on your stack, but it can have a soothing effect mentally as you get away from the one site that has been slapping you over the head with variance. There are many reasons to diversify between sites, this is just one of them.

b) Smaller fields are your friend- Some people don't like small fields because generally the pot at the end of the rainbow is small as well. But you have to win a lot of little pots to have money to win the big pot. If players only played the Sunday Million they could go years without making substantial money. The smaller the field, the less land mines you have to dodge to get to the promised land. The mental effect that winning a 100-200 man tournament can carry over to big events too, it cannot be argued that winning begets winning.

c) Play below your roll too!- Yuck! Why should I play lower than my roll? I can’t win big! This is true, hubris is one of the biggest enemies to a poker player, yes you can’t win huge but you can win enough to cover some buyins to your true level. Anytime you get a chance to cover buyins is a good thing. If one-tabling was the paradigm in online poker, this bullet point would not exist. However, opening up a tournament one level below your normal level is a-ok and could end up netting you some free money for bigger tournaments. Also refer back to the last point, "winning begets winning."

d) Play where you are most +EV- This is another obvious point and there isn’t much to explain. If you are good deep stacked, play rebuys and deep stacks the most. If you are good push botting, play shallow stacks. If you are good at PLO, play PLO.  People play in a lot of tournaments where they are -EV to take a shot which is ok, but making a habit of playing in tournaments where you are -EV or not as +EV as you are elsewhere is a death wish, which leaves you with 2 options: Get better or start playing where you are most +EV more often.

e) Remember you can't control the cards!- Obvious, but find solace in the fact that by playing optimally you WILL win long term. However, you have picked one of the highest variance forms of poker, MTTs. You can go months on a down swing. Just think, you are only 41% to win 4 80/20's in a row! That’s right an underdog!

f) Embrace short-handed play– Short-handed play is where you will make a lot of your big money.  People don’t realize the absolute necessity of being proficient short-handed going into a 1200 or 2000 man tournament. But to really make some noise you need to know when to turn it on and when to sit back.  A lot of the players you will run into late in tournaments will not know how to play short-handed, which means it is a golden chance for free chips for you.  What does all this noise have to do with variance though?  Well, free chips mean you can see more flops, take a beat here and there and still be alive and kicking when the real money gets carted out and dumped on the center of the felt!

g) Embrace satellites!– Satellites are great, bottom line.  While poker is very much about making the most possible money per hour, it is also about doing so in a safe way.  What better way to cut variance then to play a tournament you would be playing anyway for 1/10 the buyin?  The answer is that there isn’t!  Players shy away from satellites to tournaments that they will play anyway because they would rather do something else. However, in online poker you are only restricted by screen space so if that space isn’t going to be used anyway, fire up a satellite to that tournament you are going to play in 2 hours. You just might be able to play on a healthy discount!