I do not intend this post to be results oriented. Please do not look at it this way as if hed a showed jj+ there I still think you need to look at the following.
In this hand I did a couple equity calculations. It goes down as follows:
$18,141 in pot and $13,135 to call (note this is the effective pot as bb had more than you)
1.38/1 pot odds
Against what I think is an extremely tight range of 99+aq+ of his shove you need 41.99% equity to call with 1010. 1/2.38(1+1.38)=41.99%. 1010 has 44.255% equity against this range.
2nd range 88+aq+ and 1010 has 47.505% equity
The only range you can fold against here is if you think he would not push a pair smaller than 1010 and would only push aq+ 1010+ which would only give you 40.109% equity against his hand. However, if you think hes pushing aq, you gotta believe hes shoving 99 there imo.
Therefore imo, the only true range you can fold against in this situation is ak+jj+ (as if hes shoving aq there hes shoving 1010 and 99) which only gives you 33.065% equity in the hand. I doubt seriously you can put someone on this tight of range who plays a 1k tourney. If so, then the fold was ok.
I think fossilman made a post on 2+2 a while back about even top pros not being able to fold small edges no matter what edge they feel they have.
Alot of situations like this come up for me in mtt's. I would have a ton of difficulty making this fold, however, Im wondering if I need to and making people's ranges too loose in this situation. I mean should I be putting them on a ak+jj+ range in this situation?
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IMO, as Sorel Mizzi says, sometimes you have to ignore pott odds for thin decisions in a tourney. It would stay in competition with your edge on other people and reduces it. And in your example with pott odds from 1.38 pre flop, I think you are deep enough and there should be still enough room for play.
This is only valid for tourneys not for cash games
Hello,
I want to apologize because I went back to the video and actually the pot odds were better. Even though they were, I still think that your ability edge does not compensate not taking small edges when you only leave yourself an M of 6 and 16bbs.
Here is the hand again with the correct odds. Please correct me if you see any mistakes
Blinds 400/800 100ante
$900 from antes in the pot. Small blind $400. Ettore_m shoves all in for $781. Jurollo isolates for $2925. The big blind calls $2925 and shoves an additional $13135 (which is what jurollo has left)
Total $900antes+400sb+$781ettore+$2925wpthero+$2925call by bb+$13135shove by bb =$21066
$21066 in pot and $13135 to call = 1.6038/1 pot odds meaning we need 38.405% equity(1/2.6038) to call
Our hand needs 38.405 % equity against his range to make a call correct
Hand equity against the following ranges.
Range 1 Aq+99+ 44.255 equity
Range 2 88+aq+ 47.505 equity
Range 3 JJ+ AK+ 33.065
Range 4 99+ak+ 40.173
Range 5 1010+ak+ 34.052
Range 6 Aq+1010+ 40.282
Range 7 Aq+jj+ 40.109
Against those 7 ranges only 2 are incorrect to call. (all of these are extremely tight ranges imo)
Calling and winning gives you a stack of $34201. 42bb stack
Calling and losing your out of the tourney
Folding leaves you 16bbs (with blinds going to 500/1k very soon)
I am pretty sure he said that they were on the bubble in this hand or close to it. (54 left)
As to the sorel mizzi comment above, I am pretty sure fossilman's post at 2+2 clearly refuted any edges someone may think they have when they refuse to take small edges in tournaments. Also did sorel mean that his edge is so great that he can fold small edges against others even at less than 20bbs?
Hey, was reading first post very quick, somehow thought stacks left were 18k and 16k with 1.38 to call all in shove....
Average ev would be 39,7 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Even though, I dont like a pure pot odd call with KTs..., cause a king might be dead and your kicker might also only be alive for 20%.
I need to be shure that i get 50% against both (so about 20%/30% me+50% ) otherwise i feel that I get a bigger edge from folding and open pushing light next hands depends on players to my left.
So i need TT+/AK+, 99 imo are -ev and TT are break even. so i might even fold TT and stack off with JJs.