Feel free to direct your questions towards me as well as Noah, I'll be trying to check in this thread every now and again.  Also I definitely agree with Noah about a couple times where I misplayed hands, and disagree with others (for instance I like my 33 flatcall on the flop after flopping a set in a 4way pot, and I like my nitty SB play ).  Hope you guys enjoyed the video, and I'd obviously welcome any comments about my commentary -- this was the first time I'd ever produced a video with commentary and I was playing a bit of a guessing game with what I should be talking about (i.e., what level my average listener would be at, so how basic/advanced by commentary should be).

Anyway, thanks for watching, and thanks to Noah and the PokerSavvy guys for doing this.

--Matt 

First off, good video, I like the concept. And sometimes it's definitely good for me to be reminded that I shouldn't spew off my chips as easily as I like to.

Some comments after watching the first 45 mins:

25 mins in: I'm surprised Noah didn't comment on the K8s fold with a short stack to a button raise.
Against a decently wide button opening range, we definitely have enough equity (like 45%) to get it in here, especially since Matt later talks about taking slightly -EV spots with a short stack.

33 mins in: I agree with Matt and think calling with the set is best.
Chances are that the blinds raise or jam a flush draw whereas I'd expect them to fold it once you 3bet. And they could also spazz out with an A which they might fold after a bet and 3bet.

40 mins: 55 to a CO open. That looks like a clear shove to me assuming that this guy understands this stage of the tournament and doesn't call super light. Some math: A decently wide opening range should be something like 23% - 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,A8o+,KTo+,QJo.
A calling range might be 7.5% - 77+,ATs+,AJo (the bottom of this range will have a tough decision imo)

So he folds about 2/3rds of the time and we pick up
1350 chips. If he calls, we have 37% equity in a 12800 chip pot and lose about 1400 chips on average which means that shoving wins about 450 chips! I also expect that shoving 55 is more profitable than shoving KQs a little later in the bottom right although I didn't do the math here.

Man that discussion about taking slightly -EV spots with a short stack got so disjointed that I'm not even sure it made sense.  If it wasn't clear, basically the idea is that when your stack gets to the point that each round around the table is hurting you significantly, it may be better to take a slightly -EV spot now, rather than take a +EV spot in an orbit or two when your stack is significantly lower than it was.  Like say you have 800 chips left at 100/200/25, and you recognize some play UTG that is going to lose you 25 chips on average -- that would be preferable to folding and making a play 3 hands later that is going to gain you 150 chips on average, because your net chip stack would be lower waiting for the spot with a positive expectation.

As for the hand itself, I decided at the hand that JPs range there just wasn't wide enough.  I might be wrong. 

Glad I have some support on the 33 hand.  What's that Noah kid know anyway.

 In the 55 hand, basically I think you're just too optimistic about how light he is opening, and how great the disparity is likely to be between his opening and calling ranges.  I mean if he is folding 2/3 of the time he opens, then yeah, we can obviously shove 55, as well as a whole lot of other hands.  But I think most people will adjust their calling range along with their opening range, and I think his calling range may well be tighter than that with his stack size/stacks left to act.  But I think you're right that its' fairly close.  

Anyway, thanks for the comments, glad you enjoyed the video.

The 33 hand w/ the set, I like a flat against certain players and raising against others cause if the blinds flopped an FD, 2 pair etc, they're prolly c/ring but may find folds if you raise.

the 55 against the CO open I think is prolly a fold, cause he only had like 23 bbs, so prolly not opening super light against solid players who are going to be reshipping him a lot... and I think he's prolly raising w/ the intention of getting it in most of the time.

great vid though, very solid :) 

Hey joka,
Glad you enjoyed the video.

Yeah, that K8s is definitely a shove.  I don't know why I missed that before.  We need about 43% equity vs. his range to shove, so we really only need him to be opening a few implied odds hands, like say suited connectors down to 78s and some suited Qs to make this a shove.  Just throwing in the range 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q7s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,A2o+,K8o+,QTo+,JTo into poker stove maks the shove break-even, and I definitely think we can expect him to be opening looser than that on average this early in the tournament, when he's still deep with SB.

Matt and I argued a bit about that 333 hand yesterday over AIM. I think the blinds almost never c/ring with a FD in that spot over a half pot and a call when any raise really commits them.  I think they will sometimes just be unwilling to fold a FD even after we raise because folding draws isn't fun.  And, I don't really think they often choose not to raise preflop, check the flop, and then call a flop bet + call with Ax. 

Here's some very careless math:

Let's say Ax is 14.5% of their preflop ranges (14.5% of all hands are Ax, so it's a roughly reasonable estimate--it's probably a low estimate for SB and a high estimate for BB). Then because the board contains an A, that percentage drops by a bit less than 25%, so let's say they have Ax 11% of the time going into this flop. Then say each one bets it 70% of the time on the flop?  So that leaves them each having Ax about 3.3% of the time. Then say they'll overcall with it 80% of the time, so each one calls with Ax 2.64% of the time, we'll use 2.7.  So  there's a little more than a 5.3% chance that Ax overcalls here.

I admit that was totally carelessly done, but I think it's a reasonable ballpark.  Even if I were somehow off by a factor of 2, I think that getting more money out of UTG is a much bigger consideration than getting 240 out of the blinds 10% of the time. And of course there's also the small considerations of preventing flush draws from calling getting this price and getting the occasional (?) donk call or shove from a FD here after you raise.

Crap.. now I'm late for my guitar lesson. I basically totally agree with Matt about the 55 hand. I think your calling range is tight and your raising range is loose.  If you wanna see some specific ranges and math, lemme know and I'll do it when I get a chance.

Matt and Noah,

thanks a lot for the quick and long responses. And, yeah, I'd definitelyappreciate to see some math on the 55 hand that convinces me that it's not a shove (and how the 55 spot can be worse than the KQs spot).

Does he really raise-call 66 vs someone with a fairly nitty image like Matt? Or does he not open 97s from the CO there? I'd expect most non-nits to have a fairly wide range but you guys are obv more experienced in these situations than I am.

Btw, Matt, you did get the 'slightly -EV plays with a short stack' message across in the vid and I totally agree.

I doubt he would raise/fold many pairs there.  I also am not sure whether he's opening suited one-gappers there but I don't think he should be.

 Giving him an opening range of 21% and calling range of 10.4%, and the people left behind us a calling range of 3.8%, we net -5 chips on the play.   If we tighten up his calling range to an optimistic 7.8%, we net a little over 1 SB.  I was obviously just doing guesswork at the table, but my assumption at the time was that it would be be between breakeven and marginally bad, whereas in actuality it looks like it's probably between breakeven and marginally good.  But this isn't a play we are ever earning 2BBs of EV off of, that's unrealistically optimistic in my opinion.

Yeah... I was basically gonna do what Matt did. My opening range for him is a bit tighter than 21%, and my calling range was a bit tighter than 10.4%, but came out about the same.

Thanks, I agree now that my assumptions were overly optimistic, it's prolly quite close. But if the button folds 55 opening quite wide from the CO can't be too bad .

Just watched part II.

Matt for guest pro imo, he should really do his own vids. Great explanations, great thought process.

I also found it remarkable how easily you shrugged off the KK vs AA, I think most people would at least be audibly aggravated for a few seconds. Is that the benefit of bananas? If so, I really gotta try that cause tilt is definitely one of the reasons why I suck.

(Before Noah feels set back, I gotta say that I watched all his PSP vids and loved them. Please keep on cursing, too. I think the blunt way is fucking best to get things across.)

Only one hand where I don't totally agree.
10 mins in: I agree with Noah about the 88 call being bad, I think you could've mentioned that stack sizes really sucked there, too. The blinds could still wake up with a hand and Matt had to isolate there (if he chose to play). In close spots like this one that should be factored in imo.

Thanks for this, very much appreciated. 

I also wanted to say that I just finished watching these videos, and I really think I can do better.  This recording was literally the first one I've ever done, and I was kinda flying blind, but there were definitely large gaps with no commentary, and some sloppy/stunted explanations, things that I know I can do better.  So I will.  Thanks to everyone for watching and commenting, but if you see another video out of me, it will definitely be much crisper and hopefully will convey the concepts I'd like to talk about/you'd like to hear about a little more effectively.

Hey Matt and Noah,

Just wanted to say great vids and excellent commentary. Learned a lot of small things I was previously overlooking from these videos. I had a quick question for you, and if I have any more in the future I'll be sure to let you know.

 In the first video, Matt has AQs one hand and talks about how if the villain's opening range is 8% of hands or less, then it's a -EV play to shove AQs as a resteal. I've been playing around with pokerstove for a little while, and see that AQs only has 48% or so equity vs that range (just as Matt said). 

 Now, my question is, when we make the reshove with AQs, isn't he folding out some of those hands in the bottom end of his 8% opening range (KTs, KJs, QJs, etc.) and isn't his calling range much tighter than 8%? More like maybe 6%? Assuming this, is the shove with AQs profitable?

 Thanks for the explanations ahead of time!

Rahul

It's the fact that he's folding that makes it unprofitable.  He's folding hands that we crush like AJ/ATs/KQs, so this spot is worse, not better than if he were calling with all the hands he opened with.

Ah, yeah that makes perfect sense. Dunno why I didn't think of that before! Thanks Noah.

מלון אילת מלונות ים המלח

biyxbwloxhhfpekuwztngpgkcmw, Amazon Coupons, bpnjykjee, [url=http://acsystem-sn.com/]Amazon Discount[/url], nQZrnywof, http://acsystem-sn.com/ Amazon Discount Coupons, amBihuywr, Amazon Gift Card, eeHfdJoFY, [url=http://mon-boucher.com/]Amazon Discounts[/url], WqVSEccYq, http://mon-boucher.com/ Amazon Deals, BEmyExMrY, Amazon Coupon, ljHdfVGGG, [url=http://bloggertheme.net/]Amazon Discount Code[/url], OCLlGjzKp, http://bloggertheme.net/ Amazon Discount Codes, jnLyqwtws, Amazon Christmas, fWzvCtozx, [url=http://olivierdexant.com]Amazon Christmas Presents[/url], LSGlWpkaA, http://olivierdexant.com/ Amazon Christmas Deals, QvSpOTJjx, Amazon Gifts, gZVRgqxnp, [url=http://web-search-force.com/]Amazon Christmas Ideas[/url], NHBDYBQCz, http://web-search-force.com/ Amazon Cheap Deals,JrKmrdnHO, Pregnancy Symptoms, RzBccidQR, [url=http://pregnancysymptomssigns.net/]Pregnany Week by Week[/url], YaafvyUaj, http://pregnancysymptomssigns.net/ Pregnancy Calculator, XfRCpmGJj.