This article is mainly for beginners who just started their poker career. It will cover the short- and middle-term influence of luck at poker, describing what you can expect in the next months. Furthermore I give tips of how to deal with the inevitable up- and downswings in the game.

Luck in No Limit Hold’em Poker

Every single hand can be played perfectly and yet still be lost. This is not a rare exception – it happens quite frequently. The same procedure, again and again. On the other hand, you might play a hand very poorly and still win a huge pot. These short-run results do not depend on your skill alone. Fortune has a strong influence as well. Still, it definitely pays off to play better than your opponents. Because in the long run, you will win about as much as you are better than your opponents. Of course there will be phases of hundreds or even thousands of hands you will lose – even against weak opponents. That is called a downswing. But other times you will win significantly more than you “should”. That’s an upswing. If those extreme events occur, it is important to act in the right way. The next two paragraphs will be about this matter.

Dealing with Upswings

Of course an upswing is a great experience. It’s a lot of fun to win money in a quick and rapid fashion and to watch your bankroll grow and grow. But the possibly arising euphoria might lead to mistakes while playing. It is really important that you consider the following:

- Continue to seek out your weak spots and always try to improve your game.

Even if you’re on an upswing right now, it is important to constantly get better. Try to identify mistakes you made, post hands in the sample hands boards if you are not quite sure if you played them right. Read further articles and/or books and ask questions in the boards, if there is anything you do not understand.

- Strictly stick to bankroll management.

An upswing always refers to the past. Luck (or bad luck) in the past has absolutely no influence on your luck in the future. To make sure you do not lose your bankroll, it is absolutely necessary that you always stick to the rules and recommendations in the bankroll management article.

Dealing with Downswings

First I want to clarify what is meant with the concept “downswing”. A downswing is a phase in which you lose more than 5 buy-ins. Smaller losses are of course annoying, too, but happen regularly and are not to be worried about. If you get stuck in a “real” downswing, losing more than 5 buy-ins, it is so important that you do not lose your head and keep with the following:

- As with an upswing, seek out your weak spots and always try to improve your game.

A downswing does not mean that your play is flawed. Maybe everything is okay and you just suffered from a streak of bad luck. But losing a lot should always put you on alert: Maybe your play started to leak in one way or another. Try to identify your mistakes. Post hands into the sample hands boards, if you’re not sure about how well you played them. Continue reading articles and/or books and ask questions in the boards whenever there is something you don’t understand.

- Take a break after heavy losses.

For yourself, it’s never easy to notice whether you are on tilt or not. Nevertheless, you will often play different (worse!) after you lost a lot. So do not take the risk – just take a break. Of at least one day.

- Strictly stick to the bankroll management.

To stick to this point whilst suffering from a downswing is even more difficult compared to upswings. Everyone knows the urge to regain lost money as soon as possible. But it absolutely is necessary to drop down to a lower limit if your bankroll gets too small. There is no disgrace in playing lower limits during a downswing. But it would be a great disgrace to lose your bankroll because you played higher than you can afford!

Even if you keep to these recommendations, you will catch a severe downswing from time to time. And it will never be pleasant. But your bankroll will survive and you will emerge as a better player from these downswings than you were before.

Realistic Speculations about Winning Rates at No Limit

The next chapter will help you to judge your results by giving a rough orientation of how large the winning rates on the different limits can be expected to be.

The so called winning rate is measured in big bets per 100 hands (BB/100). So if you play 100 hands on NL (5c/10c blinds) with a winning rate of 1 BB/100, you win 10 cents. 300 hands would earn you 30 cents. Dividing the number of played hands by your win (or loss) in big bets, you get your winning rate. Per table you will play around 65 hands per hour. As soon as you use software like PokerTracker, you can watch your winning rates for different limits there.

But be aware of the fact that the winning rate does not get really significant until you calculate 20,000 or even 60,000 played hands. As a beginner, you should be content with any positive winning rate: A win rate of 10BB/100 hands should (or 5 PTBB, if you have a look at PokerTracker). You might be able to have a winning rate of 20BB / 100 hands on the lower limits though.

The above values do not mean that you will or should reach them in any case. A lower winning rate is good, too. Additionally, luck and bad luck play a significant role, especially if you just play a small number of hands on a specific limit. So your results may vary vastly from those values – in both directions. Even if you play really good.