Expected Value in Texas Hold'em

Don't be intimidated by the task of calculating odds. You don't need to be a math major, and you don't need to crunch the numbers out to 3 decimal places, but you do want to have an accurate idea of whether or not you are being fairly compensated for the risks you are taking.

Before we move on to cards, let's look at another familiar example: Roulette. As you may have guessed, Roulette is not a fair game -- it has negative expected value for the player, which is why casinos can afford to have nice marble entrances and complimentary buffets. How much should you expect to lose when you play roulette? An American roulette wheel has the numbers 1 through 36, plus two more slots for 0 and 00. So you have a 1 in 38 chance of picking the correct number. The house, however, only pays you 35 to 1 on your bet. How much are they making on you? If you wager $10, 38 times, you would expect to lose $10 37 times ($-370) and win $350 once, for a net expected value of NEGATIVE $20! You wagered a total of $380, so you are facing a negative expected value of $20/$380 = 5.26% on every bet! In other words, if you are betting $10 each time, you expect to lose about 53 cents on every single spin you bet on.

It's worth noting here that poker is fundamentally different from roulette and other casino games. Whether online or live, the house has no interest in the outcome of a poker hand. Sites like Party Poker tell you exactly how much they're taking out of each pot. (The house take is called the "rake.")

Now we can talk about pot odds.