Read:
SB is 18/13 over a decent sample. Doesn't 3-bet often, but every one I've seen has come out of the SB vs an LP raise.
CO is LAG like 27/24 over about 100 hands, can fold though.
I've been fairly tight at this table, but have opened up a bit the last few orbits.
Rest of the table are fish.
Preflop:
Planning on folding, but now that everyone has called, I'm getting 4.3-1 and I'm thinking it's kinda marginal. I make position the deciding factor and call giving the SB a JJ+,AK range making me a 29% dog. Obviously, I'm looking for more than top pair to go nuts post-flop.
Flop:
Interesting check around. Pretty decent flop for me. TP+GSSD. I make kind of a feeler bet. If I'm raised, I'm pretty sure I'm dumping. Also looking to get a free card if called. I'm 36% against SB's range on the flop, although he's much more likely to check some hands than others. Should I have checked behind and taken the free one or is my hand actually strong enough to bet here?
Turn:
One of the worst/best cards in the deck for me? My equity actually improved to 38% against that range. But I really don't know which of those hands he'd check again. I'm getting 2.64-1 on a shove if he actually has that range, which kinda technically makes it about right, especially if you add any FE at all. So, check or shove?
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
| UTG |
|
($57.45) |
|
| UTG+1 |
|
($78.10) |
|
| CO |
|
($49.25) |
|
| Hero |
|
($49.25) |
|
| SB |
|
($50.35) |
|
| BB |
|
($94.00) |
|
Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is BTN
UTG calls $0.50 ($56.95), 1 fold, CO raises to $1.50 ($47.75), Hero calls $1.50 ($47.75), SB raises to $6.50 ($43.60), 1 fold, UTG calls $6 ($50.95), CO calls $5 ($42.75), Hero calls $5 ($42.75)
Flop: 
($26.50, 4 players)
SB checks ($43.85), UTG checks ($50.95), CO checks ($42.75), Hero bets $12 ($30.75), SB calls $12 ($31.85), UTG folds ($50.95), CO folds ($42.75)
Turn: 
($50.50, 2 players)
SB checks ($31.85), Hero ??? ($30.75 left)
So where did I go wrong?
Full results (w/ actual equity):
http://weaktight.com/363965
Offline
check back the turn, and see what happens.?
If you shove, you are representing 2 pair or better, so you never get called by worse ( or shouldn't anyway). So you're not really value betting, you're semi-bluffing.
Villians range should be big cards/big pairs. if he was squeezing, smaller pairs and suited/connectors, maybe random bluffs.
His check call in terrible position says he has something, probably more like a monster than anything.
Check and see. It sucks if he shows you AQ here, but thats about the only hand that can fold, that has you beat.
mark
I think you went wrong calling the 3-bet preflop this is a very marginal hand to be calling a decent sized 3-bet, the only real thing you have here is position on the two villans, kq is a very second best type hand in 3-bet pots because you are crushed by aq, ak, aa, kk, qq which i think his range is very close to here and folding would have been the better route here imo
I think you're right. However, even as you say, it's still super marginal probly.
If you shove, you are representing 2 pair or better, so you never get
called by worse ( or shouldn't anyway). So you're not really value
betting, you're semi-bluffing.
Villians range should be big cards/big pairs. if he was squeezing, smaller pairs and suited/connectors, maybe random bluffs.
His check call in terrible position says he has something, probably more like a monster than anything.
Check and see. It sucks if he shows you AQ here, but thats about the only hand that can fold, that has you beat.
mark
I don't think he has trash, especially if he called that flop bet. He has to fold AQ on the flop too.
I don't get called by worse, but I was really thinking he might have QQ on the turn. I figure either he reads me as a bluff and calls that hand, folds, or at worst calls and still have decent equity. If my range for him is correct, that push is slightly +EV.
However, on a double digit stack downswing, I might want to start reducing my variance a little and a check behind would certainly do that.
When I come back to this hand though, I just keep looking at the flop. I'm just so unsure about it and keep asking myself what I could/should have done that would be better.