Can't edit my post, but I think his range for calling the flop is 99-AA and he checks behind JJ/QQ on the river and shoves 99/TT and AA, so he never vbets worse AND never bluffs when I check. I also think he folds JJ when I shove and calls QQ/AA (break even) and 99/TT (losing), so a shove is -EV.

So it seems a clear check-fold, but check-folding KK at uNL seems rather unusual so I'm just posting to make sure my reasoning makes sense.

I would bet every street for value. only hand that beats you is 1010. Cold calling a 3b with AA is just silly if your opponent knows your 3b range is super tight.

As played imo its a clear value bet on river, especially since he checked turn. If villain have 1010 its just a cooler, but since JJ and QQ most likely calls its +EV to bet river.

Why can't he call AA preflop? I'm only continuing KK+ against a 4bet preflop. I don't know if he really thinks I'm that tight in this spot, but if I have KK he's likely gonna stack me anyway as an ace is unlikely to flop, thus flatting keeps weaker hands in my range that could still put in money postflop. He also seemed the type to fold JJ to 2 barrels here, so if he has QQ just as often as AA, my bet will be -EV considering he can also have a set some of the time.

well, as a basic strategy its a good idea to 4bet with AA when a tight player 3b you. This is because the flop can come out scary so JJ, QQ and KK wont stack off, and AK have to improve to stack off postflop

However against a player who 3b frequently with a wide range it might be a good idea to just cold call with AA and give him the innative in the hand.

There's a big ammount of mutual respect going on here though. I didn't think he thinks I'm calling a 4bet with worse than QQ. But I see your point.

At the time I really thought AA was in his range though. If he doesn't have AA in his range then I'd shove the river, but do you agree that if AA is in his range, it should be a checkfold? Or in other words, even though I made a bad read preflop, my thought process based on that bad read was correct on the river?

i think your analysis leads u to a check fold as u treat possible lines for the villian as certainties. plus against described villian i dont think he ever 99 pre, this definitley has teh same value as 22 here IMO. yes villian might flat AA here, but if he thinks u are 3 betting tight, which he probably does by the dynamic and relative positions, plus he probably thinks u are never folding QQ or AK here, so he loses the ability to stack a lot of your range by flatting here, which he wont be able to stack post flop a lot. plus how likely is he really to not try and get it in on the flop or turn if he does have AA? this would be a really weird line, especially on that flop where even if he thinks u are solid i doubt he gives u credit for folding QQ

same goes for TT, surely raising the flop is his best chance for value as overpairs are stronger hands on teh flop relative to teh turn or river. i think flatting the flop is pretty bad and not something i would expect either a good or solid player as described do given preflop position and hence your range.

so i think this leaves us with hands he plays this way every time basically, QQ and JJ. i think a shove is by far best and looks the most like a bluff, and i would expect to get called here a decent ammount and be good like 80% of teh time.

also its worth noting that even if you shove and are beat 60% u get called of teh time its better than c/fing.

I see your point. Maybe it was his timing on the flop call and turn check aswell giving my guts a weird feeling. I was timebanking the river, then shoved and immediatly regretted it, before he even called with AA a couple of seconds later. I was yelling at myself for having a sick range-read and not following up with it, but perhaps it was a fluke occurence and the shove was still +EV and I'm being result orientated now.

ive only just read this post, but bartjan i know that you can get a good feel for players so your read is prob much better than anyone else's here...

Me, as a 50NL 6max reg, almost always flat AA to a 3bet, his line is slightly crazy considering your range was pretty narrow in itself, but as played i think you can c/f river.

The reason i amost always flat with AA to a 3bet in a HU pot is that a 4bet at uNL just screams AA/KK. Turn your hand face up, yell it out even to the incredibly bad players!!!! 4bet = whoa im folding.!

~The end~

Your reasoning is wrong I think. Even if his calling range is as tight as you say it is (and I don't think that it is), there are 6 combinations each of QQ and AA and 3 each of TT and 99. This means when he calls your shove you win 6 out of 18 times, i.e. 33.33% of the time.

Now the pot is $28.25 and he has $29.85 behind, so to be break even you have to win x% of the time where:

(28.25 + 29.85) x = 29.85 (1 - x)

Solving this equation gives x = 34.2, i.e. when you shove you have to win 34.2% of the time to be break even. So even with the incredibly tight range you give him it is only very slightly -EV and that is the worst case scenario. Add in that at least sometimes he calls with JJ and this becomes a profitable shove (if he calls every time with JJ, your equity is 50% and the shove is extremely +EV). 

I would bet $1 extra on the flop and then shove the turn (the $1 extra means your turn shove is slightly less than a pot bet). 

No my reasoning is right. It's true that I still win money when I shove, but it's less money than I win by checkfolding:

If his strategy is shoving AA and 99/TT, and calling QQ+ 99 and TT, checking behind the rest, then the EV of the different plays looks like this.

6 AA, 6QQ, 6JJ, 6 sets,

So he shoves 12 out of 24 times and I'm never good so I have to fold winning $0. He checks behind 12 out of 24 times and I'm good, winning $28,25.

EV of check/fold = $14,12

He calls 18 out of 24 times and I'm behind 12 times, so 6 times I win $28,25 when he folds, 6 times I win $58,1 when he calls QQ and 12 times I lose $29,85.

6*28,25 + 6*58,1 + 12*-29,85, devided by 24, gives

EV of shove = $6,66

So shoving has a lower EV than check/folding, making check/folding the superior play. I lose $7,46 by shoving.

The math you did in your post proofs that shoving is better than open-folding. Note that check/folding doesn't equal breaking even. Breaking even has an EV of 0, like open folding. By check-folding, you sometimes win the pot though. I hope this made sense

Well yeah, but you said a shove was -EV.

Provided you have a 100% read that he only has AA,QQ,JJ,TT or 99 and you know exactly how he plays each of those hands then check-folding is better, yes. I don't know about you but I never have reads that good though. QQ or JJ are much more likely here than 99, TT or AA imo. He could also quite easily have a hand like AQs or AJs.

Also, if you are check-folding KK in spots like this then you will be very easy to play against.

Well yeah, technically shoving is +EV. Checkfolding even more +EV and check-calling -EV

It's the read I had for that specific situation because there was so
much mutual respect going on. We were both feasting on the fish,
avoiding eachother like mad. But like you said, if his range is mroe weighted towards QQ/JJ and less AA/sets, that changes things. That's why I posted it here, to see other people's opinions. If he plays AA and sets like this 25% of the time, and JJ/QQ 100%, a shove becomes much more correct. He showed up with aces, which only proves they were in his range, but it doesn't proof that he always plays them this way. I'm afraid I might be result orientated and giving aces too much weight in his range. That's why I posted it here. Everyone seems to agree they're a thinner part of his range, so I'm probably just being result orientated and shoving might actually have the same or even better EV than check-folding.

you need to fire at this river as you've under-represented your hand.  Your line screams of AK, AQ, 88.  You will get called by worse pairs, even ATs. 

With KK, you 'should' be betting the turn, because you didn't, that can put enough doubt in his mind that he will call a little lite on river. 

I use this line regularly ( mix it up with bet/bet/bet) and get called by thinking players as it looks bluffy due to their lack of aggression in the pot.

Also, stats are great, but if he never folds his BB, his stats become meaningless in those pots ( when he's in BB).  So this player is not defined by his stats, he is situational.  It looks like he's playing you.  Does he realize that you are staying out of his way? 

I would be looking for value on the river.  It might be c/c, vbet, or shoving, depending on your history/his tendencies.  There is no reason to think that you don't have the best hand.  He specifically needs to have 99 or TT for you to be behind here ( which should have been betting that flop). 

Mark