I should preface this article with 2 things. First, I know Ashley Adams personally and he is a great, winning player. Second, this is my personal opinion and if you asked 10 other pros, you would probably get 5 that agree with me and 5 that agree with him.
In his recent article, 5 Times You Don't Have To Call, Ashley states that one of the times it is ok to fold is when "It’s the middle stage of a tournament. You’re the big blind of $1,000. You have $3,000 left. Someone to your left goes all in for another $600. Everyone folds to you. You have 9s5s. Yeah, it’s a bargain and you’ll knock out your opponent if you win. But don’t call. You don’t have to; you have a lousy hand, and you will save a significant piece of your stack by conceding."
While I get the underlying point (which is, don't call bets, no matter how small, with crappy hands) I think this is a bad example and I think in this situation it's an easy call. Someone moving all-in for $1600 when the blinds are 500/1000 could literally have any 2 cards, so lets see how our 9-5 suited stacks up against several ranges. First of all, you are getting 5:1 pot odds. Even if your opponent accidentally flips up his cards and they show AA, you should still call here from a pot odds perspective. If you are up against AA, you are about 20% to win. Pocket pairs that fall between your two cards make you a 30% favorite, two over cards, like KQ or A-T and you're almost a 40% favorite and if he happens to have an underpair like 33 or 44, you are basically 50% to win.
So it can be correct to call here even if you know you are behind because of the pot odds you are getting. That is not the only reason to call, however. Your stack size is also a factor. If the big blind is 1000, the average stack is probably somewhere between 25k and 40k. Also, there are likely some large stacks that have 60-70 or even 100k. You currently have no fold equity at ALL. (for those who don't know, fold equity is the ability to make your opponent fold by raising or moving all-in). By winning this pot, you would have over 6 big blinds, still leaving you with a short stack, but now with all-important fold equity. Also, were you to lose the pot, 3000 chips are of no more value than 2400 chips. the extra 600 chips afford you no extra protection.
Lastly, the stage of the tournament is of tertiary concern. While I believe I would make this call about 95% of the time, the fact that this is the middle of the tourney makes the call even more correct. If this was the money bubble or even the final table bubble (when payouts normally take a giant step up) it might be argued that you have so little chance at winning the tourney anyway, that you should fold and try to move up a spot or two in money. But in the middle stage, as in this example, your measly 3k stack if you fold by NO MEANS guarantees you money. In fact, you probably WON'T make the money. If there is ever a time to try and get lucky, while getting 5:1 on your money, this is the time.
Whether you agree with me or not, and its ok not to
, hopefully you'll have a little perspective on why this isn't such an easy fold and why many pros would actually advocate a call here. The moral? What seems like a bad hand, may not be so bad when you put your opponent on a range and calculate your pot odds. It may actually be a GREAT hand to call with. Hope this helps!
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