I've been itching to write this article. To me, the psychology of poker is far more interesting than the mathematics. But without a firm grasp of the basic probabilities of certain drawing hands, all the psychology in the world isn't going save your bankroll from certain extinction.
In part 1 of this article, I discussed one of the most common leaks in limit hold'em: peeling. A player peels when he calls a bet on the flop or the turn to see one more card. He hopes he'll catch something that will improve or win the hand.
Players who peel do so for either mathematical reasons, such as having the proper odds to draw to the nut flush, or for psychological reasons, which may or may not include mathematical calculations. In this article, I'm going to talk about some of the psychological reasons for peeling that cause serious leeks in some players' games.
Let's say you are on the button with JJ. The under-the-gun (UTG) player opens with a raise, and a middle player re-raises. You decide to flat call. Both blinds fold and three players see the flop. The flop comes K, 10, 3. UTG bets, the middle player raises and you stare down at your hand. Is there hope? Not enough to fill a toothpaste cap. You are facing two bets on the flop in the face of pre-flop strength with a hot overcard on the board.
You know this is a clear fold, but somewhere in the deep recesses of your subconscious, you hear a contrarian voice. It points out that both of the players have been hyper-aggressive at times. The voice goes on to remind you that the UTG player is a little obnoxious and could use to be taken down a peg or two. Wouldn't it be just great to spike a hook on the turn?
You look at the flop again and notice that if a Queen falls, you will have an open-ended straight draw, giving you a chance to make another call on the turn. So, you aren't exactly working with nothing here. You've got two Jacks, and 4 Queens, which might give you a pass to the river.
But wait! There's more.
There is $135.00 in the pot -- $30 of it yours -- and it's going to get bigger. And it's a good hand. Maybe these jokers are trying to push you off the pot. What if you are folding the winning hand? Would you be able to sleep knowing that you were robbed of $135.00?
You think for a second as you scan the room. Is anybody watching? Your mother certainly isn't. Sklansky probably isn't -- and if he were, he probably wouldn't care. Only you know what you are doing.
You can peel one card and see if you might get lucky. You've been lucky before. It's like escaping death. There is a thrill in getting lucky. You go ahead and call.
A series of syndromes
OK, back to reality. This example may be a bit loaded, but it does show some psychological pitfalls, or syndromes, players fall into:
I'll Get You, You Bastard Syndrome (a.k.a. Tilt): If you call because you really want to roast that obnoxious player who has been giving you grief all night, you are allowing your emotions to rule your action. You're on tilt.
Polygraph Syndrome: You can't stand being lied to. To rationalize a call, you begin looking at unlikely scenarios that could win you the pot -- turn cards that might give you a drawing hand for the river.
Married to the Pot Syndrome: You see the money in the table -- more specifically, you see your money -- and feel that throwing your hand away is like throwing away a wallet full of money.
Libertarian Syndrome: You know it's wrong, but who is watching? These are your cards and it's your decision. If you want to make stupid long-shot calls, then that's your right. It's a free country, isn't it?
Before writing this article, I surveyed hundreds of low-limit to middle-limit games. I looked for players who often called a bet on the flop, and then folded to another bet on the turn. Many of these players seemed to make these calls reflexively.
For example, the day before I began this article, I played in a $10/$20 at Foxwoods Casino during the World Poker Finals. The game was normal with two players frequently calling a bet on the flop. After watching these players peel a couple of times, I was dealt AK of hearts in the cutoff position. The UTG had called (we'll call him Peeler 1, or P1). All folded to me. I raised, and was called by the BB (who we'll call P2) as well as P1. The three of us saw the flop. The flop came Qd 7c 3s. Check, check, I bet. Now here is the interesting part. Without hesitating, the BB threw in his call, never bothering to look at me. The UTG looked at me and made some quick mental calculation. He appeared as though he were looking for an excuse to call.
Was I dressed like a bluffer? Did I look like I was trying to steal? Was I the kind of player who he would love to beat? I could tell that he was wrestling with the Polygraph Syndrome. If a scare card came on the turn, I would have to either make an Oscar-winning performance, or else give him a pass to the river.
When the turn brought the 2h, I knew it was show time. The big blind hesitated before checking -- a classic tell: he wanted me to think he was going to check-raise. The UTG player checked it to me but then looked at me quickly for my action. And then I started my Oscar-winning performance bet which I coupled with my I've-go-trip-Queens-and-you-are-going-to-be-sorry-if-you-call look. It must have worked because they both folded quickly.
Could either of them have something stronger than a high card that they willingly tossed away on the turn? Perhaps. But my money is on the side that says they peeled for one of the syndromes listed above and by doing so, cost themselves a small bet for the hand.
Peeling can become habitual. You can get lucky for a period of time and fall into the habit of peeling improperly without knowing it.
How do you know if you're peeling excessively? Here are some warning signs: If players frequently comment about the excessive bad beats you are putting them through, you are probably peeling ... a lot! If you notice that your bankroll has taken a significant nosedive and is showing no signs of recovery, take a hard look at your play on the flop. Are you peeling for reasons other than mathematical ones with a positive expectation? If so, are these reasons truly valid?
Finally, I'll mention that there are times you should peel, even though the math doesn't seem to support that action. In shorthanded play you're likely to run into these situations. For instance, say you raise from the cutoff with AK suited. All fold to the big blind (BB) who is an experienced player. He calls. The flop shows rags. The BB knows that you might be on big overcards so he may check to you with the full intention of check-raising. You have to call him down or possibly re-raise him a good percentage of the time to stop him from stealing the pot every time there's an ugly flop. As you become more advanced, you'll recognize situations where you need to play your opponents rather than your cards.
But in most low-limit and some middle-limit games, your cards should be the primary concern. To win in these games, you need to be holding the best hand at showdown. If you let common psychological problems affect your decisions on the flop and the turn, you're going to have a difficult time beating these games -- or any games, for that matter.
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