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Pot Odds and Outs

POT ODDS

Basically Pot Odds are nothing but the proportion amongst the size of the pot you might win and the size of the bet you have to call. For example an opponent makes a bet of exactly the amount which is already in the pot - also called "Pot-sized bet" - against you, the value of the Pot Odds are precisely 2.

Pot Odds = (Pot + bet of the opponent) : your Call = 2.

For your call you'll get back (if you win this Pot) exactly double, so your Pot Odds are 2 zu 1.

To win in the long run in this kind of situation, your chance of winning (expectation of profits) the hand has to be 33% ( 2 to 1 ). How we'll get this percentage, we will see later under Outs and Odds.

Important: The higher the Pod-Odds are, the smaller our chance of winning the specific hand has to be.

Example: If there is $180 in the Pot and your opponent bets $60, you'll need a chance of at least 20% ( 4 to 1 ) of winning that hand to justify your call mathematically.

Pot-Odds = ($180 + $60) : $60 = 4.

As you'll get 4 times the amount of $60 (in case you win that hand), your Pot-Odds are 4 zu 1 (4:1).

OUTS AND ODDS

It's definitely not always easy to calculate your chance of winning as you don't know what kind of hand your opponent may hold. In this case there are several factors which make it easier to help you to make a decision. On one hand you already could have collected some information about your opponent, which indicates what kind of hand he may hold. On the other hand, we know our own cards and the cards on the board. So you can find out how many cards which are still to come (Help cards) may help you to improve your hand. The number of these cards are called Outs.

Lets say you hold 9c and Tc and the Flop is 4h, 7c, 8c, which means we get 21 Outs, which will improve our hand significantly.

9 cards (all remaining clubs for the flush or straight flush),

+ 6 cards for the straight (four Sixes and four Jacks - deducting the 6 and Jack of Clubs, which you can't count twice for the straight and the flush),

+ 6 cards for High Pair

This means you've got exactly: 21 outs

Taking the outs, how now do we calculate the Odds?
A view of the outs is only relevant after the Flop is dealt. Now you see 3 cards on the board and the 2 cards you hold, 47 cards are invisible to you. In this example you have two cards of the suit Clubs and there are 2 more clubs on the board now. You only need one more club which would give you the flush. There are a total of 14 clubs in the deck, deducting the 4 clubs ( 2 on the board and 2 you hold ) which means 9 clubs = 9 outs are left. 9 of the 47 invisible cards are "good" and 38 "bad". Now you simply take the good cards and the bad cards in proportion to calculate your odds.

38 : 9 → 4.22 : 1 ≈ 4 : 1

This value means, that you will hit in 5(!) hands one time a "good" card (a card of the suit clubs).

Here you take again a look at the Pot Odds. It will help you to decide, when you should call for such a "chance". Again taken the example, like written above, only in one of five hands you will win, so the pot should bring you in case of winning 4 times the amount you have to call.

Example:
The flop has been dealt and you count 9 outs, there are 5 more players in the hand, there is already $120 in the pot. You are on the button (which means you're last to act) and the player under the gun (UTG - he is first to act) bets $40, 3 players folding and one calls. Now it's your turn to act: the size of the pot is now $200 and you need to call $40.

Let's start with the Pot Odds: $200 / $40 = 5, which means the Pot Odds are 5:1.. As we already did count your Outs, we already know your chance of 4:1 to hit a "good" card. If we now take a look at your Pot Odds (5:1) we see they are higher than the Odds (4.22:1), so a Call is justified.

Hopefully my article gives you beginning players a little overview about the importance of knowing about Pot Odds and Outs and may the Flop be with you!

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